Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.5% (95% 56.6%–66.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 59.8% (95% 54.8%–64.7%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

Win rate 50.8% (95% 38.4%–63.2%) vs baseline 61.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR211–119–2163.9%63.7%
TE104–73–3358.8%60.9%
RB122–71–2163.2%61.8%
QB29–39–542.6%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag241–151–4161.5%61.4%
0.25–0.5214–130–3562.2%62.4%
0.5–111–21–434.4%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Short week calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W13Marquise BrownWR KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3)7.810.0+2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W13David MontgomeryRB DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)10.712.8+2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Josh JacobsRB GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)16.710.1−6.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Jordan LoveQB GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.5)15.625.8+10.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W13CeeDee LambWR DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)16.024.2+8.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Shane ZylstraTE DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Rashod BatemanWR BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)8.70.0−8.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Elijah MitchellRB KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tylan WallaceWR BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jermar JeffersonRB DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Ja'Marr ChaseWR CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)24.518.0−6.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)24.10.0−24.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Javonte WilliamsRB DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)17.117.0−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Bo MeltonWR GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)3.01.5−1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Isiah PachecoRB KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0)10.65.3−5.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Jameson WilliamsWR DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)13.226.9+13.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W13George PickensWR DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)17.516.8−0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Dameon PierceRB KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13John FitzPatrickTE GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.2)1.40.0−1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Kendric PryorWR CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Malik DavisRB DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)1.510.7+9.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Peyton HendershotTE KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.2)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jalen TolbertWR DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)4.60.0−4.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W13KaVontae TurpinWR DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)4.78.1+3.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Romeo DoubsWR GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)13.512.0−1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Isaiah LikelyTE BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2)6.412.5+6.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Jake FergusonTE DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2)10.88.6−2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Charlie KolarTE BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2)2.52.7+0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Tyquan ThorntonWR KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3)5.20.0−5.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Christian WatsonWR GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)12.218.3+6.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Dontayvion WicksWR GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)7.528.0+20.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Keaton MitchellRB BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)4.511.1+6.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Malik HeathWR GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)1.60.0−1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Jason BrownleeWR KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Nikko RemigioWR KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Luke SchoonmakerTE DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2)2.31.1−1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Charlie JonesWR CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)2.50.0−2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Josh WhyleTE GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.2)2.00.0−2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Chase BrownRB CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0)20.418.3−2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Andrei IosivasWR CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)11.99.9−2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Deuce VaughnRB DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Chris BrooksRB GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)3.32.9−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Princeton FantTE DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Hunter LuepkeRB DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)1.90.0−1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Jalen CropperWR DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Emanuel WilsonRB GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)10.31.4−8.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Mitchell TinsleyWR CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)4.04.2+0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Jacob SaylorsRB DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tucker KraftTE GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.2)9.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jonathan MingoWR DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Zay FlowersWR BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)18.70.6−18.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Sam LaPortaTE DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2)12.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Rashee RiceWR KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3)17.829.4+11.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Jahmyr GibbsRB DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)23.911.6−12.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Luke MusgraveTE GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.2)3.43.3−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Kendall MiltonRB CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Baylor CuppTE KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.2)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Carson SteeleRB KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Sione VakiRB DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tanner McLachlanTE CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Ryan FlournoyWR DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)3.76.4+2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Brevyn Spann-FordTE DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2)1.20.0−1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Cam GrandyTE CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Devontez WalkerWR BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)2.40.0−2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Rasheen AliRB BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)1.71.7+0.0pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Jared WileyTE KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.2)0.71.4+0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Xavier WorthyWR KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3)11.411.4−0.0pushBacktest ·
2025 W13LaJohntay WesterWR BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Brashard SmithRB KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0)5.80.0−5.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Dominic LovettWR DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jackson MeeksTE DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jaydon BlueRB DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jalen RoyalsWR KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Matthew GoldenWR GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)7.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Isaac TeSlaaWR DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)2.011.5+9.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Robert WoodsWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Amari CooperWR BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3)5.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Dare OgunbowaleRB HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)1.40.0−1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Joe MixonRB HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)9.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Dalton SchultzTE HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2)8.51.8−6.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Justin WatsonWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Braxton BerriosWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Christian KirkWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)5.116.4+11.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Nick ChubbRB HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)6.02.5−3.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Josh AllenQB BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.5)19.08.1−10.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Irv SmithTE HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Diontae JohnsonWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)3.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Ty JohnsonRB BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.0)4.48.2+3.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Dawson KnoxTE BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.2)6.14.7−1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Jakob JohnsonRB HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.60.0−0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W12J.J. TaylorRB HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Reggie GilliamRB BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.0)0.51.2+0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Gabe DavisWR BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3)6.13.2−2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Harrison BryantTE HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Nico CollinsWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)13.58.5−5.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Davis MillsQB HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.5)12.414.5+2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Elijah MooreWR BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3)4.00.7−3.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Josh PalmerWR BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3)7.34.1−3.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W12James CookRB BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.0)17.621.9+4.3❌Backtest ·

NewerPage 3 of 8 · 711 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse