Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W9 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 4.6 | -0.1 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 17.6 | 16.6 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 7.1 | 0.7 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 7.2 | 5.1 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | John Metchie IIIWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.1 | 1.4 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 16.9 | 10.5 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Xavier GipsonWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 14.1 | 11.5 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 5.7 | 0.9 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Malachi CorleyWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 0.9 | -0.2 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 4.7 | 2.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 18.1 | 11.5 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 8.7 | 3.7 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 7.4 | 1.6 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 6.5 | 3.6 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 11.2 | 4.2 | −7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 18.3 | 8.4 | −9.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 3.9 | 1.7 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 11.8 | 0.0 | −11.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 4.2 | 3.2 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 6.3 | 4.8 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 6.1 | 3.5 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 12.5 | 6.3 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 10.0 | 3.0 | −7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Bo NixQB DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 14.7 | 14.1 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Geno SmithQB SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 16.9 | 12.5 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Pharaoh BrownTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Eric SaubertTE SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 14.7 | 7.8 | −6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 9.9 | 5.7 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 13.7 | 5.7 | −8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 14.3 | 9.2 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 11.4 | 10.3 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 8.9 | 4.5 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jacob CowingWR SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 16.4 | 11.6 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cody ThompsonWR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 13.8 | 9.6 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB) | 7.5 | 5.5 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB) | 17.1 | 10.7 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 8.0 | 5.6 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Kameron JohnsonWR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Brandin CooksWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 9.7 | 2.6 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 12.2 | 3.4 | −8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 18.5 | 16.7 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 12.7 | 4.8 | −7.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Daniel JonesQB NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 13.9 | 9.5 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jakob JohnsonRB NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 6.8 | 5.4 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 1.6 | 0.1 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 3.6 | 1.6 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 7.6 | 2.9 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Jacoby BrissettQB NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 10.5 | 3.9 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | K.J. OsbornWR NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 5.8 | 0.0 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 12.8 | 0.3 | −12.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE) | 14.9 | 14.3 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Tyquan ThorntonWR NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE) | 20.1 | 18.3 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF) | 20.8 | 6.6 | −14.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 5.3 | 1.3 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 4.9 | 0.0 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF) | 7.3 | 3.2 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Braxton BerriosWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Durham SmytheTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF) | 5.3 | 1.8 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 17.3 | 9.8 | −7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF) | 3.3 | 0.2 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF) | 17.1 | 5.5 | −11.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Quintin MorrisTE BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF) | 13.6 | 8.5 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Julian HillTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 8.5 | 7.3 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 13.0 | 0.0 | −13.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
NewerPage 5 of 5 · 496 calls
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse