Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W9 | Xavier GipsonWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 9.9 | 18.6 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Malachi CorleyWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 0.9 | -0.2 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 10.6 | 17.5 | +6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 15.4 | 16.1 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Trent SherfieldWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 1.4 | 8.0 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Trishton JacksonWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 18.5 | 19.5 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 7.4 | 1.6 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 11.2 | 2.8 | −8.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 6.5 | 3.6 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Lucky JacksonWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 11.2 | 4.2 | −7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 11.4 | 18.1 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Phillip DorsettWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Michael ThomasWR NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 9.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Equanimeous St. BrownWR NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Keith KirkwoodWR NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 11.8 | 0.0 | −11.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.9 | 17.7 | +14.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tre'Quan SmithWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | David SillsWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 4.2 | 3.2 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Lynn BowdenWR NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Michael BandyWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | A.T. PerryWR NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 2.8 | 3.8 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Bub MeansWR NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 5.2 | 6.7 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 10.0 | 3.0 | −7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 5.2 | 10.5 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 4.8 | 10.0 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Willie SneadWR SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyler LockettWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 10.8 | 16.5 | +5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 14.7 | 7.8 | −6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 13.3 | 20.7 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Easop WinstonWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 9.9 | 5.7 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 13.7 | 5.7 | −8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 1.3 | 6.0 | +4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dareke YoungWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 11.4 | 10.3 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ronnie BellWR SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 2.3 | 3.8 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jacob CowingWR SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Mike EvansWR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 14.5 | 23.2 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Damiere ByrdWR ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Sterling ShepardWR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 3.8 | 7.4 | +3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 16.4 | 11.6 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB) | 9.6 | 12.6 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB) | 1.5 | 14.7 | +13.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cody ThompsonWR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Marquez CallawayWR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB) | 11.9 | 31.5 | +19.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB) | 14.7 | 33.4 | +18.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Rakim JarrettWR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ryan MillerWR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Kameron JohnsonWR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Brandin CooksWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 9.7 | 2.6 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Michael GallupWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 5.9 | 8.6 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 18.4 | 23.6 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 6.8 | 5.4 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 9.0 | 18.1 | +9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Bryce Ford-WheatonWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 16.3 | 23.1 | +6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Randall CobbWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | DeVante ParkerWR NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Ty MontgomeryWR NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Kendrick BourneWR NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 7.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Mike WilliamsWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE) | 1.9 | 6.4 | +4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE) | 8.6 | 13.8 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Malik TaylorWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | K.J. OsbornWR NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 5.8 | 0.0 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Irvin CharlesWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE) | 14.9 | 14.3 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Tyquan ThorntonWR NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Jason BrownleeWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Xavier GipsonWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE) | 3.4 | 3.6 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 1.2 | 1.2 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 4.8 | 14.8 | +10.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Javon BakerWR NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 3.0 | 3.3 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Malachi CorleyWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF) | 7.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Robbie ChosenWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF) | 1.2 | 1.5 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF) | 20.8 | 6.6 | −14.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse