Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W11 | Ben VanSumerenRB PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brycen TremayneWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Colson YankoffTE WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Melvin GordonRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Deonte HartyWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Diontae JohnsonWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 9.7 | 1.6 | −8.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Stanley MorganWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Zack MossRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 11.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 13.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ben MasonTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Chris EvansRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Shedrick JacksonWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Malik CunninghamWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kendall MiltonRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Isaiah WilliamsWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Erick AllTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Randall CobbWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 13.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Nick BawdenRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Andrew BeckRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Malik TaylorWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dalton KeeneTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 1.0 | 2.2 | +1.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 12.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kene NwangwuRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Irvin CharlesWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Johnny Johnson IIIWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jason BrownleeWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | British BrooksRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 7.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 8.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Myles GaskinRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | N'Keal HarryTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 6.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Trishton JacksonWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 11.2 | 2.8 | −8.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 6.4 | 0.0 | −6.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Lucky JacksonWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Phillip DorsettWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Dwayne WashingtonRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Michael ThomasWR NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 9.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | J.P. HoltzTE NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Equanimeous St. BrownWR NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Keith KirkwoodWR NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tre'Quan SmithWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | David SillsWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Lynn BowdenWR NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Michael BandyWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | A.T. PerryWR NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Blake WatsonRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Willie SneadWR SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 16.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Easop WinstonWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dareke YoungWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jake TongesTE SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brady RussellRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ronnie BellWR SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | SaRodorick Thompson Jr.RB SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Keith SmithRB ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Damiere ByrdWR ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | David WellsTE TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Marquez CallawayWR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Rakim JarrettWR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ryan MillerWR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Darren WallerTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 5.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Matt BreidaRB NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse