Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W17 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Malik CunninghamWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler ScottWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 4.3 | 0.5 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 17.2 | 5.1 | −12.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 10.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 15.0 | 6.1 | −8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 15.9 | 10.6 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | George HolaniRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Baylor CuppTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 2.4 | 1.1 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | British BrooksRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 3.9 | 0.0 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rasheen AliRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.4 | -0.3 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jared WileyTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 10.6 | 22.9 | +12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 15.9 | 6.6 | −9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 10.6 | 2.5 | −8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 1.3 | 10.9 | +9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Phillip DorsettWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 6.1 | 20.1 | +14.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 15.4 | 10.0 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 3.3 | 1.8 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Keelan DossWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 4.9 | 0.0 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jalen GuytonWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 16.4 | 22.2 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 3.5 | 1.5 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Simi FehokoWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Michael BandyWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Josh PalmerWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 9.5 | 9.1 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 12.5 | 12.3 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 4.5 | 6.7 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 2.8 | 5.1 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 1.2 | 11.9 | +10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.4 | 2.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 11.3 | 4.8 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.8 | 10.8 | +8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 1.5 | 3.8 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 5.3 | 9.5 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Audric EstiméRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 3.6 | 10.8 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 6.4 | 2.4 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brenden RiceWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 8.2 | 10.1 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Blake WatsonRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 1.2 | 3.3 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jaylen JohnsonWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Bo NixQB DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 14.8 | 21.0 | +6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 6.0 | 4.5 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 16.2 | 14.7 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 14.5 | 8.2 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Willie SneadWR SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 6.4 | 0.0 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 18.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 12.8 | 10.1 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Eric SaubertTE SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 14.4 | 0.0 | −14.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 10.8 | 4.9 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 3.9 | 4.1 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 14.0 | 5.1 | −8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 10.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 5.7 | 1.6 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 0.8 | 3.7 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jake TongesTE SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 8.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 18.0 | 4.0 | −14.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 16.4 | 13.2 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ronnie BellWR SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 16.6 | 17.8 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 4.9 | 11.5 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jacob CowingWR SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 3.2 | 4.0 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse