Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.5% (95% 56.6%–66.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 59.8% (95% 54.8%–64.7%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

Win rate 50.8% (95% 38.4%–63.2%) vs baseline 61.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR211–119–2163.9%63.7%
TE104–73–3358.8%60.9%
RB122–71–2163.2%61.8%
QB29–39–542.6%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag241–151–4161.5%61.4%
0.25–0.5214–130–3562.2%62.4%
0.5–111–21–434.4%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Short week calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Ben SkowronekWR PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.0)1.31.7+0.4pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Olamide ZaccheausWR ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)3.32.9−0.4pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Chris BlairWR ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)1.82.0+0.2pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Zachariah BranchWR ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)1.71.7+0.0pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2025 W17Jalen RoyalsWR KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Rashid ShaheedWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)8.69.1+0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Mitchell TinsleyWR CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)4.04.2+0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Xavier WorthyWR KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3)11.411.4−0.0pushBacktest ·
2025 W13LaJohntay WesterWR BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W9Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)4.74.2−0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W9Rashod BatemanWR BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)9.29.3+0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W5Konata MumpfieldWR LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected −0.3)0.50.0−0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W3Tyreek HillWR MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)15.615.9+0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W3Malik WashingtonWR MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)6.36.2−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W2Savion WilliamsWR GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)2.12.4+0.3pushBacktest ·
2024 W17Robert WoodsWR HOUFade (Short week vs BAL)3.74.1+0.4pushBacktest ·
2024 W16Josh PalmerWR LACFade (Short week vs DEN)9.59.1−0.4pushBacktest ·
2024 W13Tim PatrickWR DETFade (Short week vs CHI)7.06.8−0.2pushBacktest ·
2024 W13Dontayvion WicksWR GBFade (Short week vs MIA)7.47.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2024 W13Malik WashingtonWR MIAFade (Short week vs GB)3.12.8−0.3pushBacktest ·
2024 W10Jermaine BurtonWR CINFade (Short week vs BAL)2.42.1−0.3pushBacktest ·
2024 W3Xavier GipsonWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE)3.43.6+0.3pushBacktest ·
2024 W3Kayshon BoutteWR NEFade (Short week vs NYJ)1.21.2−0.0pushBacktest ·
2024 W3Ja'Lynn PolkWR NEFade (Short week vs NYJ)3.03.3+0.3pushBacktest ·
2024 W2Robbie ChosenWR MIAFade (Short week vs BUF)1.21.5+0.3pushBacktest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse