Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.5% (95% 56.6%–66.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 59.8% (95% 54.8%–64.7%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

Win rate 50.8% (95% 38.4%–63.2%) vs baseline 61.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR211–119–2163.9%63.7%
TE104–73–3358.8%60.9%
RB122–71–2163.2%61.8%
QB29–39–542.6%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag241–151–4161.5%61.4%
0.25–0.5214–130–3562.2%62.4%
0.5–111–21–434.4%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Short week calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Adam ThielenWR PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.0)5.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Scott MillerWR PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.0)2.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Calvin Austin IIIWR PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.0)5.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Cedric TillmanWR CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)2.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jamari ThrashWR CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Gage LarvadainWR CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.4––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jamal AgnewWR ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3David SillsWR ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)4.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Deven ThompkinsWR ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Malik HeathWR GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)1.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Dylan DrummondWR ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)1.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Casey WashingtonWR ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)2.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Savion WilliamsWR GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)2.4––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jakobie Keeney-JamesWR GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)12.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Curtis SamuelWR BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)3.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Mecole HardmanWR BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)2.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Greg DortchWR BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)3.40.0−3.4voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Tom KennedyWR DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Gabe DavisWR BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)6.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Tay MartinWR DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)2.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Tyrell ShaversWR BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)2.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Malik CunninghamWR DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Dominic LovettWR DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2025 W17Allen RobinsonWR DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Kalif RaymondWR DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)4.01.5−2.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Brandon PowellWR MINFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Tom KennedyWR DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Parris CampbellWR DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Tyquan ThorntonWR KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)3.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jason BrownleeWR KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Nikko RemigioWR KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jalen CropperWR DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Malik CunninghamWR DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Rashee RiceWR KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)11.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Ryan FlournoyWR DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)6.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Tai FeltonWR MINFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Dominic LovettWR DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Myles PriceWR MINFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Davante AdamsWR LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)12.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Cody WhiteWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Dareke YoungWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jake BoboWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tory HortonWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)4.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ricky White IIIWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Sterling ShepardWR TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3)6.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jamal AgnewWR ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15KhaDarel HodgeWR ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Deven ThompkinsWR ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Rakim JarrettWR TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ryan MillerWR TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Trey PalmerWR TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Casey WashingtonWR ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Kameron JohnsonWR TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Allen RobinsonWR DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Nelson AgholorWR BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Anthony MillerWR BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Trenton IrwinWR CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)3.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Parris CampbellWR DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tylan WallaceWR BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)24.10.0−24.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Kendric PryorWR CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jason BrownleeWR KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Nikko RemigioWR KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jalen CropperWR DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jonathan MingoWR DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Dominic LovettWR DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jalen RoyalsWR KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Matthew GoldenWR GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)7.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Robert WoodsWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Amari CooperWR BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3)5.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Justin WatsonWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Braxton BerriosWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Diontae JohnsonWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)3.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Jalen VirgilWR BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Jared WayneWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Tank DellWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)8.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Keon ColemanWR BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3)10.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Alex EricksonWR NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Josh ReynoldsWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3)8.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Allen LazardWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3)4.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Brandon SmithWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Irvin CharlesWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Javon BakerWR NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ja'Lynn PolkWR NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Arian SmithWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3)3.70.0−3.7voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected −0.3)5.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10DJ TurnerWR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Justin ShorterWR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Shedrick JacksonWR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Ramel KeytonWR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Nelson AgholorWR BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)5.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Tyreek HillWR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)13.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Anthony MillerWR BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Erik EzukanmaWR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Grant DuBoseWR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Devontez WalkerWR BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Brandon PowellWR MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected −0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8DJ CharkWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)2.8––voidBacktest ·

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How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse