Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.5% (95% 56.6%–66.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 59.8% (95% 54.8%–64.7%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

Win rate 50.8% (95% 38.4%–63.2%) vs baseline 61.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR211–119–2163.9%63.7%
TE104–73–3358.8%60.9%
RB122–71–2163.2%61.8%
QB29–39–542.6%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag241–151–4161.5%61.4%
0.25–0.5214–130–3562.2%62.4%
0.5–111–21–434.4%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Short week calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W17Dak PrescottQB DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.5)21.622.7+1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W17JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)3.44.6+1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)3.84.3+0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Adam TrautmanTE DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2)3.54.4+0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Michael BandyWR DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)2.03.4+1.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Malik DavisRB DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0)3.710.3+6.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Jalen TolbertWR DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)4.77.1+2.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W17KaVontae TurpinWR DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)5.815.6+9.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Luke SchoonmakerTE DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2)2.33.5+1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Hunter LuepkeRB DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0)2.35.4+3.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Jordan AddisonWR MINFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)11.212.5+1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Brevyn Spann-FordTE DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2)1.14.1+3.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Brashard SmithRB KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)2.49.5+7.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Isaac TeSlaaWR DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)5.213.9+8.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W17RJ HarveyRB DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)13.818.6+4.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Matthew StaffordQB LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.5)14.530.9+16.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Eric SaubertTE SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2)0.92.0+1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Sam DarnoldQB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.5)14.519.5+5.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)11.725.4+13.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Xavier SmithWR LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)3.37.7+4.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)19.423.6+4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Davis AllenTE LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)3.65.4+1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Puka NacuaWR LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)24.746.5+21.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Zach CharbonnetRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)7.617.4+9.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Blake CorumRB LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)6.413.1+6.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16AJ BarnerTE SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2)8.015.0+7.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Konata MumpfieldWR LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)1.77.0+5.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Terrance FergusonTE LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)3.012.3+9.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Kirk CousinsQB ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.5)10.426.9+16.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Mike EvansWR TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3)7.419.2+11.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Chris Godwin Jr.WR TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3)9.814.0+4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Baker MayfieldQB TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.5)17.419.2+1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W15David SillsWR ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3)4.513.8+9.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Charlie WoernerTE ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.2)1.33.2+1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Kyle PittsTE ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.2)10.145.6+35.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Bijan RobinsonRB ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.0)19.229.5+10.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Sean TuckerRB TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)4.86.7+1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Devin CulpTE TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.2)0.77.6+6.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Travis KelceTE KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.2)14.015.5+1.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Dak PrescottQB DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.5)19.120.6+1.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Jared GoffQB DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.5)17.020.6+3.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Anthony FirkserTE DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2)0.51.4+0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Patrick MahomesQB KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.5)22.029.4+7.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Ross DwelleyTE DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2)0.51.3+0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Tanner HudsonTE CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)3.98.4+4.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Tom KennedyWR DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)1.77.6+5.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Marquise BrownWR KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3)7.810.0+2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W13David MontgomeryRB DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)10.712.8+2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Jordan LoveQB GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.5)15.625.8+10.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W13CeeDee LambWR DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)16.024.2+8.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Jameson WilliamsWR DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)13.226.9+13.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Malik DavisRB DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)1.510.7+9.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W13KaVontae TurpinWR DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)4.78.1+3.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Isaiah LikelyTE BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2)6.412.5+6.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Christian WatsonWR GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)12.218.3+6.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Dontayvion WicksWR GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)7.528.0+20.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Keaton MitchellRB BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)4.511.1+6.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Rashee RiceWR KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3)17.829.4+11.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Ryan FlournoyWR DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)3.76.4+2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Jared WileyTE KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.2)0.71.4+0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Isaac TeSlaaWR DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)2.011.5+9.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Christian KirkWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)5.116.4+11.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Ty JohnsonRB BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.0)4.48.2+3.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Reggie GilliamRB BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.0)0.51.2+0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Davis MillsQB HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.5)12.414.5+2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W12James CookRB BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.0)17.621.9+4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Khalil ShakirWR BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3)12.617.0+4.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Ray DavisRB BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.0)3.16.0+2.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Jayden HigginsWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)5.213.8+8.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Jackson HawesTE BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.2)3.14.6+1.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Stefon DiggsWR NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3)16.919.5+2.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Justin FieldsQB NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.5)11.819.3+7.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W11John Metchie IIIWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3)3.013.5+10.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Jeremy RuckertTE NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.2)2.16.3+4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W11TreVeyon HendersonRB NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.0)17.132.3+15.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Tyler LockettWR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)4.39.4+5.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Adam PrenticeRB DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.0)1.02.3+1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Troy FranklinWR DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected −0.3)13.415.0+1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Ashton JeantyRB LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)12.715.3+2.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Pat BryantWR DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected −0.3)4.05.3+1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Mark AndrewsTE BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2)10.916.6+5.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Lamar JacksonQB BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.5)23.625.6+2.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Greg DulcichTE MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)0.69.9+9.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Isaiah LikelyTE BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2)4.79.0+4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Charlie KolarTE BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2)1.910.3+8.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Justin HerbertQB LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.5)19.625.3+5.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Kimani VidalRB LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)10.819.7+8.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Ladd McConkeyWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)13.020.8+7.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Oronde Gadsden IITE LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)9.518.7+9.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Ben YurosekTE MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2)0.11.5+1.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Tre HarrisWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)2.88.8+6.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Aaron RodgersQB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.5)16.922.6+5.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Joe FlaccoQB CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.5)14.426.0+11.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Jonnu SmithTE PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2)8.411.8+3.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Scott MillerWR PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)1.31.9+0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Noah FantTE CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.2)6.614.4+7.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Tee HigginsWR CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3)12.621.6+9.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Pat FreiermuthTE PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2)6.028.1+22.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Ja'Marr ChaseWR CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3)19.538.1+18.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Jaylen WarrenRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)15.419.8+4.4❌Backtest ·

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How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse