Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.5% (95% 56.6%–66.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 59.8% (95% 54.8%–64.7%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

Win rate 50.8% (95% 38.4%–63.2%) vs baseline 61.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR211–119–2163.9%63.7%
TE104–73–3358.8%60.9%
RB122–71–2163.2%61.8%
QB29–39–542.6%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag241–151–4161.5%61.4%
0.25–0.5214–130–3562.2%62.4%
0.5–111–21–434.4%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Short week calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Michael BurtonRB CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.2)0.70.0−0.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Deshaun WatsonQB CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +1.0)14.012.9−1.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Robert TonyanTE PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.7)0.80.0−0.8✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Travis HomerRB PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected −0.2)1.3-0.1−1.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Michael PittmanWR PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.0)8.63.5−5.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jaylen WarrenRB PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected −0.2)17.915.6−2.3✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Blake WhiteheartTE CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.7)1.30.0−1.3✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Malachi CorleyWR CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.50.0−1.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Raheim SandersRB CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.2)4.83.6−1.2✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Isaiah BondWR CLEFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)2.11.2−0.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Germie BernardWR PITFade (Short week vs CLE, expected +0.0)4.13.1−1.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Charlie WoernerTE ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.7)1.10.0−1.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Kyle PittsTE ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.7)8.01.5−6.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Bo MeltonWR GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)2.50.0−2.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jahan DotsonWR ATLFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)6.42.1−4.3✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Chris BrooksRB GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.2)4.81.4−3.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Tucker KraftTE GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.7)9.76.6−3.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3MarShawn LloydRB GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.2)10.13.8−6.3✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Kaleb JohnsonRB GBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.2)3.62.6−1.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Tyler ConklinTE DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.7)0.80.0−0.8✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2DJ MooreWR BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)13.6-0.1−13.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Brock WrightTE DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.7)2.70.0−2.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Jameson WilliamsWR DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)13.25.3−7.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Khalil ShakirWR BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)10.36.8−3.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Sione VakiRB DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.2)4.43.0−1.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Frank Gore Jr.RB BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.2)2.10.0−2.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Ray DavisRB BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.2)3.80.0−3.8✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Jackson HawesTE BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.7)1.70.0−1.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Keleki LatuTE BUFFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.7)0.90.0−0.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Jackson MeeksTE DETFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.7)0.50.0−0.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse