Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Wind 15+ mph: every call
Outdoor games with wind of 15 mph or more cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
134–87–21
60.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2025 backtest
206–90–24
69.6% vs 61.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
–
no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 194–90–18 | 68.3% | 63.7% |
| QB | 38–25–3 | 60.3% | 50.4% |
| TE | 108–62–24 | 63.5% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 134–87–21 | 60.6% | 61.2% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 119–42–11 | 73.9% | 63.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 64–34–12 | 65.3% | 60.9% |
| 1+ | 23–14–1 | 62.2% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W11 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 3.1 | 0.9 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tanner McLachlanTE CIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Cam GrandyTE CIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Devin CulpTE TB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected +0.5) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Erick AllTE CIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected +0.5) | 9.0 | 6.6 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TB, expected +0.5) | 3.9 | 0.0 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Thomas Fidone IITE NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected +0.5) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jackson MeeksTE DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 8.1 | 4.6 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NO, expected +0.5) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 2.3 | 3.6 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 10.1 | 19.2 | +9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NO, expected +0.5) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jack StollTE NO | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NO, expected +0.5) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | James MitchellTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NO, expected +0.5) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NO | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 0.7 | 2.4 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NO, expected +0.5) | 4.6 | 8.2 | +3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Treyton WelchTE NO | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Mitchell EvansTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NO, expected +0.5) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Moliki MatavaoTE NO | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected +0.5) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected +0.5) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected +0.5) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | James MitchellTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected +0.5) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Josh WhyleTE GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 11.8 | 4.0 | −7.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 2.1 | 6.4 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected +0.5) | 4.3 | 1.5 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Mitchell EvansTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected +0.5) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 6.4 | 0.0 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Geoff SwaimTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected +0.5) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Austin HooperTE NE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 4.0 | 9.1 | +5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 10.0 | 7.3 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected +0.5) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Greg DulcichTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 1.9 | 3.8 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NE, expected +0.5) | 7.6 | 0.0 | −7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Thomas OdukoyaTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NE, expected +0.5) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected +0.5) | 0.9 | 1.4 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Julian HillTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 3.1 | 1.1 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NE, expected +0.5) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Gunnar HelmTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NE, expected +0.5) | 4.2 | 7.6 | +3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected +0.5) | 11.0 | 7.6 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 6.3 | 14.0 | +7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 9.3 | 6.6 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 5.9 | 7.9 | +2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | James MitchellTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 4.1 | 2.6 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 13.4 | 12.3 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 2.9 | 1.8 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 2.5 | 1.7 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 0.9 | 1.2 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Mitchell EvansTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 2.4 | 3.1 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Terrance FergusonTE LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 7.0 | 17.7 | +10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected +0.5) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Greg DulcichTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Stone SmarttTE NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected +0.5) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected +0.5) | 2.5 | 3.3 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected +0.5) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Julian HillTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 1.6 | 2.9 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Mason TaylorTE NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected +0.5) | 7.0 | 11.5 | +4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 0.4 | 2.6 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Darren WallerTE NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Geoff SwaimTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG) | 11.0 | 9.5 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 7.0 | 18.0 | +11.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 11.9 | 15.4 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ben MasonTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG) | 5.1 | 3.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Greg DulcichTE NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 7.7 | 6.8 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 1.9 | 2.9 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG) | 0.9 | 7.7 | +6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 1.9 | 1.1 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Geoff SwaimTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler KroftTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nick VannettTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 1.8 | 7.8 | +6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 10.5 | 11.6 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 9.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse