Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Wind 15+ mph: every call
Outdoor games with wind of 15 mph or more cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
134–87–21
60.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2025 backtest
206–90–24
69.6% vs 61.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
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first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
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no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 194–90–18 | 68.3% | 63.7% |
| QB | 38–25–3 | 60.3% | 50.4% |
| TE | 108–62–24 | 63.5% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 134–87–21 | 60.6% | 61.2% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 119–42–11 | 73.9% | 63.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 64–34–12 | 65.3% | 60.9% |
| 1+ | 23–14–1 | 62.2% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W6 | LaJohntay WesterWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tetairoa McMillanWR CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected −0.4) | 14.7 | 17.9 | +3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jimmy Horn Jr.WR CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected −0.4) | 5.0 | 6.7 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Konata MumpfieldWR LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected −0.4) | 0.4 | 1.7 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Dalevon CampbellWR CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected −0.4) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ, expected −0.4) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ, expected −0.4) | 16.3 | 12.7 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Josh ReynoldsWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 7.0 | 0.0 | −7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ, expected −0.4) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 5.0 | 1.8 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ, expected −0.4) | 3.8 | 1.1 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tyler JohnsonWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ, expected −0.4) | 12.2 | 7.8 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ, expected −0.4) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Brandon SmithWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Irvin CharlesWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 16.5 | 20.2 | +3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ, expected −0.4) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ, expected −0.4) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ, expected −0.4) | 7.0 | 4.1 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Arian SmithWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Julio JonesWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Marquise GoodwinWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | John RossWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Anthony MillerWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Deonte HartyWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 6.8 | 0.0 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Parris CampbellWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG) | 21.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | James ProcheWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Quez WatkinsWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG) | 7.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 15.2 | 12.3 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 10.1 | 18.6 | +8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jaelon DardenWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG) | 20.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 8.6 | 6.6 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Britain CoveyWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG) | 5.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | David BellWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mike WoodsWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG) | 8.7 | 16.4 | +7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 9.7 | 14.3 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bryce Ford-WheatonWR NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Malik CunninghamWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 16.5 | 3.1 | −13.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG) | 3.6 | 5.4 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 15.8 | 17.4 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG) | 3.3 | 13.9 | +10.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Randall CobbWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Marquise GoodwinWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 13.4 | 9.7 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 6.9 | 14.6 | +7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Robbie ChosenWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler BoydWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 5.4 | 3.4 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 12.6 | 19.5 | +6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 6.2 | 5.3 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jamal AgnewWR JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh ReynoldsWR JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | River CracraftWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.4 | 2.6 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Braxton BerriosWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 6.7 | 1.9 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Christian KirkWR JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 8.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Calvin RidleyWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 13.3 | 14.1 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | James ProcheWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mason KinseyWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 7.2 | 6.7 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Gabe DavisWR JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 6.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chase ClaypoolWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Devin DuvernayWR JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 3.1 | 1.4 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 13.7 | 21.4 | +7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 0.7 | 2.1 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 0.8 | 1.8 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brandon SmithWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaelon DardenWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 8.8 | 1.1 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Irvin CharlesWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | David BellWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 11.4 | 5.5 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kyle PhilipsWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mike WoodsWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 5.7 | 1.3 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tay MartinWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 13.7 | 17.6 | +3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Treylon BurksWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse