Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Wind 15+ mph: every call
Outdoor games with wind of 15 mph or more cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
134–87–21
60.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2025 backtest
206–90–24
69.6% vs 61.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
–
no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 194–90–18 | 68.3% | 63.7% |
| QB | 38–25–3 | 60.3% | 50.4% |
| TE | 108–62–24 | 63.5% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 134–87–21 | 60.6% | 61.2% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 119–42–11 | 73.9% | 63.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 64–34–12 | 65.3% | 60.9% |
| 1+ | 23–14–1 | 62.2% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 12.1 | 0.5 | −11.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Randall CobbWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Marquise GoodwinWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 13.4 | 9.7 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jameis WinstonQB CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 9.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 6.9 | 14.6 | +7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Geoff SwaimTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler KroftTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nick VannettTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 1.8 | 7.8 | +6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Robbie ChosenWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler BoydWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 5.4 | 3.4 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 12.6 | 19.5 | +6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 6.2 | 5.3 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jamal AgnewWR JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 10.5 | 11.6 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 9.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh ReynoldsWR JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | River CracraftWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.4 | 2.6 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kevin RaderTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 6.1 | 21.7 | +15.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 6.3 | 10.9 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Braxton BerriosWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 6.7 | 1.9 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mason RudolphQB TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 12.3 | 12.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Christian KirkWR JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 8.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Durham SmytheTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Calvin RidleyWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 13.3 | 14.1 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 21.9 | 23.0 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Trevon WescoTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 4.7 | 1.4 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | James ProcheWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mason KinseyWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 7.2 | 6.7 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Gabe DavisWR JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 6.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 11.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chase ClaypoolWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Devin DuvernayWR JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 3.1 | 1.4 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josiah DeguaraTE JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 13.7 | 21.4 | +7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 0.7 | 2.1 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Quintin MorrisTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 0.8 | 1.8 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zach DavidsonTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh PedersonTE JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jack StollTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brandon SmithWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaelon DardenWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Luke FarrellTE JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mac JonesQB JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 10.8 | 17.2 | +6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 8.8 | 1.1 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Irvin CharlesWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | David BellWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 11.4 | 5.5 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kyle PhilipsWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mike WoodsWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 5.7 | 1.3 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tay MartinWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 13.7 | 17.6 | +3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Treylon BurksWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 8.0 | 10.9 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Thomas OdukoyaTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jason BrownleeWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Xavier GipsonWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dorian Thompson-RobinsonQB CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 10.4 | 3.8 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh WhyleTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 5.6 | 12.1 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Elijah CooksWR JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 0.9 | 13.9 | +13.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 2.3 | 1.8 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Julian HillTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 8.9 | 4.4 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jha'Quan JacksonWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Joshua CephusWR JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Bryce OliverWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs JAX) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE) | 4.7 | 7.0 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN) | 15.0 | 23.9 | +8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYJ) | 8.7 | 11.7 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Malachi CorleyWR NYJ | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Russell WilsonQB PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 13.2 | 15.4 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 1.6 | 7.1 | +5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL) | 3.8 | 5.4 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT) | 11.1 | 13.8 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT) | 22.3 | 20.5 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse