Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth

Wind 15+ mph: every call

Outdoor games with wind of 15 mph or more cost passers and receivers points.

2024 backtest

134–87–21

60.6% vs 61.2% baseline

Win rate 60.6% (95% 54.1%–66.8%) vs baseline 61.2%

2025 backtest

206–90–24

69.6% vs 61.1% baseline

Win rate 69.6% (95% 64.1%–74.6%) vs baseline 61.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

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first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

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no graded calls

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR194–90–1868.3%63.7%
QB38–25–360.3%50.4%
TE108–62–2463.5%60.9%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag134–87–2160.6%61.2%
0.25–0.5119–42–1173.9%63.7%
0.5–164–34–1265.3%60.9%
1+23–14–162.2%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Wind 15+ mph calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W16Davante AdamsWR LARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs SEA, expected −0.4)12.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Amari CooperWR BUFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Nick VannettTE LARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs SEA, expected +0.5)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tyler HigbeeTE LARFade (Wind 15+ mph vs SEA, expected +0.5)5.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Curtis SamuelWR BUFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jordan AkinsTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected +0.5)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYGFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN, expected −0.4)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Brandon PowellWR MINFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected −0.4)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Mecole HardmanWR BUFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Gunner OlszewskiWR NYGFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN, expected −0.4)1.10.0−1.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Cody WhiteWR SEAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −0.4)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Gabe DavisWR BUFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4)5.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYGFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN, expected −0.4)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Zach DavidsonTE NYGFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN, expected +0.5)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Kadarius ToneyWR CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Elijah MooreWR BUFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Dareke YoungWR SEAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −0.4)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Mike WoodsWR CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4)5.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Kaden DavisWR CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jalen VirgilWR BUFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jake BoboWR SEAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −0.4)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jalin HyattWR NYGFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN, expected −0.4)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Malik NabersWR NYGFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN, expected −0.4)10.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jamari ThrashWR CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Keon ColemanWR BUFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4)7.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Nick KallerupTE SEAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected +0.5)0.40.0−0.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Thomas Fidone IITE NYGFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN, expected +0.5)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Gage LarvadainWR CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4)2.00.0−2.0voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Keleki LatuTE BUFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Dalen CambreWR NYGFade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIN, expected −0.4)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ben YurosekTE MINFade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected +0.5)0.40.0−0.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tory HortonWR SEAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −0.4)4.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ricky White IIIWR SEAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −0.4)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Elijah ArroyoTE SEAFade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected +0.5)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15C.J. UzomahTE PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV, expected +0.5)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ian ThomasTE LVFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Albert OkwuegbunamTE LVFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15DJ TurnerWR LVFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LVFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Xavier GipsonWR PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV, expected −0.4)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15E.J. JenkinsTE PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV, expected +0.5)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Justin ShorterWR LVFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Johnny WilsonWR PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV, expected −0.4)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ramel KeytonWR LVFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ainias SmithWR PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV, expected −0.4)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Carter RunyonTE LVFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Adam ThielenWR PITFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Amari CooperWR BUFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −0.4)5.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13MyCole PruittTE PITFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected +0.5)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13DeAndre CarterWR CHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Chris ConleyWR SFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13C.J. UzomahTE PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI, expected +0.5)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Geoff SwaimTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs SF, expected +0.5)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Trent TaylorWR SFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Mike WilliamsWR PITFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Gerald EverettTE CHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PITFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jordan AkinsTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs SF, expected +0.5)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Russell GageWR SFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Malik TurnerWR SFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Stephen CarlsonTE CHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Mecole HardmanWR BUFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −0.4)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Scott MillerWR PITFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Collin JohnsonWR CHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Devin DuvernayWR CHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Kylen GransonTE PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI, expected +0.5)0.80.0−0.8voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Kadarius ToneyWR CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs SF, expected −0.4)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Elijah MooreWR BUFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −0.4)4.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Josh PalmerWR BUFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −0.4)6.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Britain CoveyWR PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI, expected −0.4)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Mike WoodsWR CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs SF, expected −0.4)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Kaden DavisWR CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs SF, expected −0.4)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jalen VirgilWR BUFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −0.4)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Skyy MooreWR SFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13E.J. JenkinsTE PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI, expected +0.5)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Brayden WillisTE SFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Dalton KincaidTE BUFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected +0.5)7.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tyler ScottWR CHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Johnny WilsonWR PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI, expected −0.4)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jacob CowingWR SFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jamari ThrashWR CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs SF, expected −0.4)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Ainias SmithWR PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI, expected −0.4)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jordan WatkinsWR SFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jahdae WalkerWR CHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Russell WilsonQB NYGFade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected −1.1)11.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Brandin CooksWR BUFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs TB, expected −0.4)5.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Mike EvansWR TBFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4)9.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Allen RobinsonWR DETFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Amari CooperWR BUFFade (Wind 15+ mph vs TB, expected −0.4)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Nelson AgholorWR BALFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4)5.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11MyCole PruittTE PITFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CIN, expected +0.5)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11C.J. UzomahTE PHIFade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET, expected +0.5)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Geoff SwaimTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected +0.5)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Anthony FirkserTE DETFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Mike WilliamsWR PITFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CIN, expected −0.4)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ross DwelleyTE DETFade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5)1.50.0−1.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PITFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CIN, expected −0.4)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Anthony MillerWR BALFade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jordan AkinsTE CLEFade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected +0.5)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYGFade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected −0.4)3.2––voidBacktest ·

Page 1 of 3 · 222 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse