2026 season · Week 5 · QB

Aaron Rodgers vs Sam Darnold: Who Should I Start in Week 5?

Start Darnold over Rodgers in PPR. Projects 17.8 vs 16.9 PPR points.

Scoring

Start Darnold over Rodgers in PPR

FlexQB1 · #10

Aaron RodgersPITQBvs IND

16.9 PPR pts

728

Floor 7 · median 15.8 · ceiling 28

Plays: 98%
Implied total: 23.5 (fav by 2.5)
Matchup: Neutral · 23rd
Usage: –

Projects 16.9 vs 17.8 PPR points.

Medium

StartQB1 · #8

Sam DarnoldSEAQBvs SF

17.8 PPR pts

829

Floor 8 · median 16.4 · ceiling 29

Plays: 98%
Implied total: 25.3 (fav by 3)
Matchup: Neutral · 22nd
Usage: –

Projects 17.8 vs 16.9 PPR points.

Medium

Add more players in Who Should I Start Aaron Rodgers stats and usage Sam Darnold stats and usage All Week 5 projections

How this works

Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.

Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology

Frequently asked questions

Should I start Aaron Rodgers or Sam Darnold in Week 5?

Start Darnold over Rodgers in PPR. Projects 17.8 vs 16.9 PPR points.

Who has the higher ceiling, Aaron Rodgers or Sam Darnold?

Sam Darnold: his 90th-percentile outcome is 29 PPR points against 28 for Aaron Rodgers, from 2,000 simulated games each.

Who is the safer start, Aaron Rodgers or Sam Darnold?

Sam Darnold: a floor (10th percentile) of 8 PPR points vs 7, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.

What are Aaron Rodgers's and Sam Darnold's Week 5 projections?

PPR: Rodgers 16.9, Darnold 17.8; half-PPR: Rodgers 16.9, Darnold 17.8; standard: Rodgers 16.9, Darnold 17.8 (points if he plays).

Side-by-side comparison