2026 season · Week 5 · QB

Aaron Rodgers vs Trevor Lawrence: Who Should I Start in Week 5?

Start Lawrence over Rodgers in PPR. Projects 17.2 vs 16.9 PPR points.

Scoring

Start Lawrence over Rodgers in PPR

FlexQB1 · #10

Aaron RodgersPITQBvs IND

16.9 PPR pts

728

Floor 7 · median 15.8 · ceiling 28

Plays: 98%
Implied total: 23.5 (fav by 2.5)
Matchup: Neutral · 23rd
Usage: –

Projects 16.9 vs 17.2 PPR points.

Medium

StartQB1 · #9

Trevor LawrenceJAXQBvs PHI

17.2 PPR pts

828

Floor 8 · median 15.9 · ceiling 28

Plays: 98%
Implied total: 24.5 (fav by 6.5)
Matchup: Neutral · 19th
Usage: –

Projects 17.2 vs 16.9 PPR points.

Medium

Add more players in Who Should I Start Aaron Rodgers stats and usage Trevor Lawrence stats and usage All Week 5 projections

How this works

Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.

Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology

Frequently asked questions

Should I start Aaron Rodgers or Trevor Lawrence in Week 5?

Start Lawrence over Rodgers in PPR. Projects 17.2 vs 16.9 PPR points.

Who has the higher ceiling, Aaron Rodgers or Trevor Lawrence?

Trevor Lawrence: his 90th-percentile outcome is 28 PPR points against 28 for Aaron Rodgers, from 2,000 simulated games each.

Who is the safer start, Aaron Rodgers or Trevor Lawrence?

Trevor Lawrence: a floor (10th percentile) of 8 PPR points vs 7, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.

What are Aaron Rodgers's and Trevor Lawrence's Week 5 projections?

PPR: Rodgers 16.9, Lawrence 17.2; half-PPR: Rodgers 16.9, Lawrence 17.2; standard: Rodgers 16.9, Lawrence 17.2 (points if he plays).

Side-by-side comparison