2026 season · Week 5 · QB

Sam Darnold vs Trevor Lawrence: Who Should I Start in Week 5?

Start Darnold over Lawrence in PPR. Projects 17.8 vs 17.2 PPR points.

Scoring

Start Darnold over Lawrence in PPR

StartQB1 · #8

Sam DarnoldSEAQBvs SF

17.8 PPR pts

829

Floor 8 · median 16.4 · ceiling 29

Plays: 98%
Implied total: 25.3 (fav by 3)
Matchup: Neutral · 22nd
Usage: –

Projects 17.8 vs 17.2 PPR points.

Medium

FlexQB1 · #9

Trevor LawrenceJAXQBvs PHI

17.2 PPR pts

828

Floor 8 · median 15.9 · ceiling 28

Plays: 98%
Implied total: 24.5 (fav by 6.5)
Matchup: Neutral · 19th
Usage: –

Projects 17.2 vs 17.8 PPR points.

Medium

Add more players in Who Should I Start Sam Darnold stats and usage Trevor Lawrence stats and usage All Week 5 projections

How this works

Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.

Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology

Frequently asked questions

Should I start Sam Darnold or Trevor Lawrence in Week 5?

Start Darnold over Lawrence in PPR. Projects 17.8 vs 17.2 PPR points.

Who has the higher ceiling, Sam Darnold or Trevor Lawrence?

Sam Darnold: his 90th-percentile outcome is 29 PPR points against 28 for Trevor Lawrence, from 2,000 simulated games each.

Who is the safer start, Sam Darnold or Trevor Lawrence?

Sam Darnold: a floor (10th percentile) of 8 PPR points vs 8, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.

What are Sam Darnold's and Trevor Lawrence's Week 5 projections?

PPR: Darnold 17.8, Lawrence 17.2; half-PPR: Darnold 17.8, Lawrence 17.2; standard: Darnold 17.8, Lawrence 17.2 (points if he plays).

Side-by-side comparison