2026 season · Week 5 · QB

Joe Burrow vs Trevor Lawrence: Who Should I Start in Week 5?

Start Burrow over Lawrence in PPR. Projects 18.4 vs 17.2 PPR points.

Scoring

Start Burrow over Lawrence in PPR

StartQB1 · #7

Joe BurrowCINQB@ MIA

18.4 PPR pts

830

Floor 8 · median 17.2 · ceiling 30

Plays: 98%
Implied total: 24.8 (fav by 7)
Matchup: Neutral · 9th
Usage: –

Projects 18.4 vs 17.2 PPR points.

Medium

FlexQB1 · #9

Trevor LawrenceJAXQBvs PHI

17.2 PPR pts

828

Floor 8 · median 15.9 · ceiling 28

Plays: 98%
Implied total: 24.5 (fav by 6.5)
Matchup: Neutral · 19th
Usage: –

Projects 17.2 vs 18.4 PPR points.

Medium

Add more players in Who Should I Start Joe Burrow stats and usage Trevor Lawrence stats and usage All Week 5 projections

How this works

Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.

Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology

Frequently asked questions

Should I start Joe Burrow or Trevor Lawrence in Week 5?

Start Burrow over Lawrence in PPR. Projects 18.4 vs 17.2 PPR points.

Who has the higher ceiling, Joe Burrow or Trevor Lawrence?

Joe Burrow: his 90th-percentile outcome is 30 PPR points against 28 for Trevor Lawrence, from 2,000 simulated games each.

Who is the safer start, Joe Burrow or Trevor Lawrence?

Joe Burrow: a floor (10th percentile) of 8 PPR points vs 8, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.

What are Joe Burrow's and Trevor Lawrence's Week 5 projections?

PPR: Burrow 18.4, Lawrence 17.2; half-PPR: Burrow 18.4, Lawrence 17.2; standard: Burrow 18.4, Lawrence 17.2 (points if he plays).

Side-by-side comparison