2026 season · Week 5 · QB

Joe Burrow vs Sam Darnold: Who Should I Start in Week 5?

Start Burrow over Darnold in PPR. Projects 18.4 vs 17.8 PPR points.

Scoring

Start Burrow over Darnold in PPR

StartQB1 · #7

Joe BurrowCINQB@ MIA

18.4 PPR pts

830

Floor 8 · median 17.2 · ceiling 30

Plays: 98%
Implied total: 24.8 (fav by 7)
Matchup: Neutral · 9th
Usage: –

Projects 18.4 vs 17.8 PPR points.

Medium

FlexQB1 · #8

Sam DarnoldSEAQBvs SF

17.8 PPR pts

829

Floor 8 · median 16.4 · ceiling 29

Plays: 98%
Implied total: 25.3 (fav by 3)
Matchup: Neutral · 22nd
Usage: –

Projects 17.8 vs 18.4 PPR points.

Medium

Add more players in Who Should I Start Joe Burrow stats and usage Sam Darnold stats and usage All Week 5 projections

How this works

Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.

Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology

Frequently asked questions

Should I start Joe Burrow or Sam Darnold in Week 5?

Start Burrow over Darnold in PPR. Projects 18.4 vs 17.8 PPR points.

Who has the higher ceiling, Joe Burrow or Sam Darnold?

Joe Burrow: his 90th-percentile outcome is 30 PPR points against 29 for Sam Darnold, from 2,000 simulated games each.

Who is the safer start, Joe Burrow or Sam Darnold?

Joe Burrow: a floor (10th percentile) of 8 PPR points vs 8, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.

What are Joe Burrow's and Sam Darnold's Week 5 projections?

PPR: Burrow 18.4, Darnold 17.8; half-PPR: Burrow 18.4, Darnold 17.8; standard: Burrow 18.4, Darnold 17.8 (points if he plays).

Side-by-side comparison