18.6 PPR pts
Floor 9 · median 17.5 · ceiling 31
- Plays
- 98%
- Implied total
- 25.0 (dog by 4.5)
- Matchup
- Soft · 30th
- Usage
- –
DET allows the 3rd-most QB points; Projects 18.6 vs 17.8 PPR points.
Medium2026 season · Week 5 · QB
Start Brissett over Darnold in PPR. DET allows the 3rd-most QB points; Projects 18.6 vs 17.8 PPR points.
18.6 PPR pts
Floor 9 · median 17.5 · ceiling 31
DET allows the 3rd-most QB points; Projects 18.6 vs 17.8 PPR points.
Medium17.8 PPR pts
Floor 8 · median 16.4 · ceiling 29
DET allows the 3rd-most QB points; Projects 17.8 vs 18.6 PPR points.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartJacoby Brissett stats and usageSam Darnold stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Brissett over Darnold in PPR. DET allows the 3rd-most QB points; Projects 18.6 vs 17.8 PPR points.
Jacoby Brissett: his 90th-percentile outcome is 31 PPR points against 29 for Sam Darnold, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Jacoby Brissett: a floor (10th percentile) of 9 PPR points vs 8, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Brissett 18.6, Darnold 17.8; half-PPR: Brissett 18.6, Darnold 17.8; standard: Brissett 18.6, Darnold 17.8 (points if he plays).