Shot Prop Lab
Shots on Goal Projections for Sunday, October 18, 2026
Expected shots on goal for every skater on tonight's slate, and the chance he clears 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5. Each number starts from the shooter's own attempt rate and accuracy, times the ice time we expect him to get at 5-on-5 and on the power play, then adjusts for the defenders he is likely to face and how well the opponent kills penalties.
2 games, 71 skaters · updated Oct 18, 5:50 PM ET · model shotprops-1.1.0. Projections, not picks. Book lines from 5 US sportsbooks (via The Odds API) are in the table as context, not as picks. Live since Oct 12 (1,094 graded lines): about even on shots on goal. Even with the books is not an edge once the margin is paid.
Final: 68 skaters played. Projected 108 shots in total, actual 116. Of the 5 skaters we gave a 50%+ chance of 3+ shots, 3 got there (60%; projected 57%).
Most likely to get 3+ shots
- Matt BoldyMIN vs CBJ66% · 3.54
- Zach WerenskiCBJ @ MIN57% · 3.06
- Kirill KaprizovMIN vs CBJ56% · 3.00
- Andrei SvechnikovCAR @ CGY54% · 2.88
- Joel Eriksson EkMIN vs CBJ50% · 2.72
- Adam FantilliCBJ @ MIN48% · 2.64
Softest 5v5 matchups
- Andrei SvechnikovCAR @ CGY+10% (+0.17) · 2.88
- Logan StankovenCAR @ CGY+9% (+0.16) · 2.33
- Matt BoldyMIN vs CBJ+4% (+0.09) · 3.54
- Kirill KaprizovMIN vs CBJ+4% (+0.07) · 3.00
Toughest 5v5 matchups
- Matt CoronatoCGY vs CAR−12% (−0.21) · 2.22
- Mikael BacklundCGY vs CAR−11% (−0.20) · 2.03
- Zach WerenskiCBJ @ MIN−2% (−0.05) · 3.06
- Adam FantilliCBJ @ MIN−2% (−0.03) · 2.64
Every skater, Oct 18
Games: CBJ @ MIN 6:00 PM ET · CAR @ CGY 8:00 PM ET. Matchup is the 5-on-5 adjustment for the defenders he is expected to face and home ice (+5% = 5% more shots than his usual rate).
71 skaters
- Matt BoldyF · MIN vs CBJ3.54Exp SOG
- Over 3.5
- 46%
- Best over
- +102
- Books
- 48%
- Actual
- 6
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 21:57
- PP TOI
- 3:38
- SOG/60 5v5
- 8.7
- Matchup
- +4%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 85% / 66% / 46%
- Book line
- 3.5 · o +102 / u −105
- Zach WerenskiD · CBJ @ MIN3.06Exp SOG
- Over 3.5
- 37%
- Best over
- +134
- Books
- 41%
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 29:26
- PP TOI
- 3:08
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.3
- Matchup
- −2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 79% / 57% / 37%
- Book line
- 3.5 · o +134 / u −165
- Kirill KaprizovF · MIN vs CBJ3.00Exp SOG
- Over 3.5
- 35%
- Best over
- +120
- Books
- 44%
- Actual
- 5
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 21:03
- PP TOI
- 3:32
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.9
- Matchup
- +4%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 78% / 56% / 35%
- Book line
- 3.5 · o +120 / u −145
- Andrei SvechnikovF · CAR @ CGY2.88Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 54%
- Best over
- −115
- Books
- 52%
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 17:54
- PP TOI
- 4:16
- SOG/60 5v5
- 8.1
- Matchup
- +10%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 76% / 54% / 33%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o −115 / u +102
- Joel Eriksson EkF · MIN vs CBJ2.72Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Best over
- −130
- Books
- 54%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 19:56
- PP TOI
- 3:19
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.3
- Matchup
- +4%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 74% / 50% / 29%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o −130 / u +110
- Adam FantilliF · CBJ @ MIN2.64Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 48%
- Best over
- −103
- Books
- 48%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 20:53
- PP TOI
- 2:54
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.9
- Matchup
- −2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 72% / 48% / 28%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o −103 / u −115
- Sebastian AhoF · CAR @ CGY2.62Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 48%
- Best over
- −104
- Books
- 48%
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 19:40
- PP TOI
- 4:14
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.8
- Matchup
- +10%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 72% / 48% / 27%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o −104 / u −120
- Jackson BlakeF · CAR @ CGY2.58Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 47%
- Best over
- +110
- Books
- 45%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 18:17
- PP TOI
- 4:18
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.4
- Matchup
- +9%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 71% / 47% / 27%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +110 / u −138
- Nikolaj EhlersF · CAR @ CGY2.36Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 41%
- Best over
- +125
- Books
- 44%
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 16:07
- PP TOI
- 4:01
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.6
- Matchup
- +10%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 67% / 41% / 22%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +125 / u −147
- Logan StankovenF · CAR @ CGY2.33Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 41%
- Best over
- +122
- Books
- 43%
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 16:49
- PP TOI
- 1:31
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.9
- Matchup
- +9%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 66% / 41% / 21%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +122 / u −143
- Quinn HughesD · MIN vs CBJ2.27Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 39%
- Best over
- +107
- Books
- 48%
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 26:15
- PP TOI
- 3:45
- SOG/60 5v5
- 4.6
- Matchup
- +3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 65% / 39% / 20%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +107 / u −125
- Matt CoronatoF · CGY vs CAR2.22Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 38%
- Best over
- +150
- Books
- 40%
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 18:19
- PP TOI
- 2:55
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.8
- Matchup
- −12%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 64% / 38% / 19%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +150 / u −165
- Blake ColemanF · MIN vs CBJ2.03Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 59%
- Best over
- −174
- Books
- 60%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 15:13
- PP TOI
- 1:12
- SOG/60 5v5
- 8.0
- Matchup
- +3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 59% / 33% / 16%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −174 / u +135
- Mikael BacklundF · CGY vs CAR2.03Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Best over
- +141
- Books
- 40%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 18:30
- PP TOI
- 0:01
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.7
- Matchup
- −11%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 59% / 33% / 16%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +141 / u −170
- Kent JohnsonF · CBJ @ MIN2.01Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 58%
- Best over
- −155
- Books
- 57%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 16:52
- PP TOI
- 2:27
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.5
- Matchup
- −2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 58% / 33% / 15%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −155 / u +125
- Valeri NichushkinF · CBJ @ MIN1.99Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 58%
- Best over
- −137
- Books
- 55%
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 16:54
- PP TOI
- 1:50
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.2
- Matchup
- −2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 58% / 32% / 15%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −137 / u +116
- Sean WalkerD · CAR @ CGY1.96Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 57%
- Best over
- −115
- Books
- 51%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 21:44
- PP TOI
- 0:50
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.3
- Matchup
- +9%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 57% / 31% / 14%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −115 / u −103
- Shayne GostisbehereD · CAR @ CGY1.93Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 56%
- Best over
- −123
- Books
- 53%
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 17:30
- PP TOI
- 4:14
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.1
- Matchup
- +9%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 56% / 30% / 14%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −123 / u +100
- Joel FarabeeF · CGY vs CAR1.91Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 56%
- Best over
- −145
- Books
- 56%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 19:38
- PP TOI
- 2:45
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.3
- Matchup
- −11%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 56% / 30% / 14%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −145 / u +118
- Bradly NadeauF · CAR @ CGY1.87Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 55%
- Best over
- +106
- Books
- 46%
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 16:29
- PP TOI
- 1:50
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.0
- Matchup
- +8%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 55% / 29% / 13%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +106 / u −137
- Charlie CoyleF · CBJ @ MIN1.87Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 55%
- Best over
- −118
- Books
- 51%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 18:58
- PP TOI
- 2:39
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.8
- Matchup
- −2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 55% / 29% / 13%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −118 / u +105
- Ryan HartmanF · MIN vs CBJ1.75Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 51%
- Best over
- −125
- Books
- 53%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 13:29
- PP TOI
- 1:16
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.2
- Matchup
- +3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 51% / 26% / 11%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −125 / u +102
- Morgan FrostF · CGY vs CAR1.69Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 49%
- Best over
- −110
- Books
- 51%
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 16:45
- PP TOI
- 2:55
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.1
- Matchup
- −12%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 49% / 24% / 10%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −110 / u +100
- Sean MonahanF · CBJ @ MIN1.68Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 49%
- Best over
- +115
- Books
- 45%
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 17:21
- PP TOI
- 1:42
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.8
- Matchup
- −2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 49% / 24% / 10%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +115 / u −130
- Matvei GridinF · CGY vs CAR1.68Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 49%
- Best over
- −120
- Books
- 52%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 15:39
- PP TOI
- 2:54
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.9
- Matchup
- −12%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 49% / 24% / 10%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −120 / u +100
- Matthew KniesF · CBJ @ MIN1.68Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 49%
- Best over
- −110
- Books
- 50%
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 18:38
- PP TOI
- 2:36
- SOG/60 5v5
- 4.5
- Matchup
- −2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 49% / 24% / 10%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −110 / u −110
- K'Andre MillerD · CAR @ CGY1.66Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 49%
- Best over
- +105
- Books
- 46%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 22:15
- PP TOI
- 1:28
- SOG/60 5v5
- 4.2
- Matchup
- +9%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 49% / 24% / 10%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +105 / u −130
- Jordan MartinookF · CAR @ CGY1.64Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 23%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 14:02
- PP TOI
- 0:04
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.7
- Matchup
- +10%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 48% / 23% / 9%
- Cole SillingerF · CBJ @ MIN1.60Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 22%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 15:37
- PP TOI
- 0:21
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.3
- Matchup
- −2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 47% / 22% / 9%
- Yegor SharangovichF · CGY vs CAR1.60Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 47%
- Best over
- +105
- Books
- 46%
- Actual
- 6
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 16:11
- PP TOI
- 1:11
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.3
- Matchup
- −12%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 47% / 22% / 9%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +105 / u −130
- Denton MateychukD · CBJ @ MIN1.59Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 22%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 23:21
- PP TOI
- 1:27
- SOG/60 5v5
- 4.1
- Matchup
- −1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 47% / 22% / 9%
- Maxim ShabanovF · MIN vs CBJ1.58Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 46%
- Best over
- −101
- Books
- 48%
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 14:46
- PP TOI
- 3:26
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.4
- Matchup
- +4%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 46% / 22% / 8%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −101 / u −125
- Mathieu OlivierF · CBJ @ MIN1.52Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 20%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 13:46
- PP TOI
- 0:01
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.0
- Matchup
- −1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 44% / 20% / 8%
- Jalen ChatfieldD · CAR @ CGY1.51Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 20%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 20:11
- PP TOI
- 0:04
- SOG/60 5v5
- 4.5
- Matchup
- +9%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 44% / 20% / 7%
- William CarrierF · CAR @ CGY1.51Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 20%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 13:06
- PP TOI
- 0:01
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.4
- Matchup
- +9%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 44% / 20% / 7%
- Jaccob SlavinD · CAR @ CGY1.49Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 43%
- Best over
- +110
- Books
- 46%
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 20:40
- PP TOI
- 0:01
- SOG/60 5v5
- 4.3
- Matchup
- +9%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 43% / 19% / 7%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +110 / u −135
- Eric RobinsonF · CAR @ CGY1.49Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 19%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 12:26
- PP TOI
- 0:10
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.9
- Matchup
- +9%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 43% / 19% / 7%
- Conor GarlandF · CBJ @ MIN1.48Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 43%
- Best over
- +125
- Books
- 43%
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 13:40
- PP TOI
- 1:33
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.1
- Matchup
- −1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 43% / 19% / 7%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +125 / u −145
- Simon NemecD · CGY vs CAR1.45Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 42%
- Best over
- +124
- Books
- 47%
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 21:12
- PP TOI
- 1:13
- SOG/60 5v5
- 4.4
- Matchup
- −12%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 42% / 18% / 7%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +124 / u −130
- Mark JankowskiF · CAR @ CGY1.44Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 18%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- DNP
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 13:54
- PP TOI
- 1:02
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.9
- Matchup
- +9%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 42% / 18% / 6%
- 1.41Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 17%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 12:22
- PP TOI
- 1:18
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.0
- Matchup
- +8%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 41% / 17% / 6%
- Zayne ParekhD · CGY vs CAR1.38Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 40%
- Best over
- +128
- Books
- 43%
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 18:54
- PP TOI
- 2:58
- SOG/60 5v5
- 4.3
- Matchup
- −12%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 40% / 17% / 6%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +128 / u −145
- Michael McCarronF · MIN vs CBJ1.34Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 16%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 13:29
- PP TOI
- 0:03
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.6
- Matchup
- +3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 38% / 16% / 5%
- Aydar SunievF · CGY vs CAR1.34Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 38%
- Best over
- +124
- Books
- 44%
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 13:10
- PP TOI
- 1:24
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.5
- Matchup
- −12%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 38% / 16% / 5%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +124 / u −130
- Ryan StromeF · CGY vs CAR1.34Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 16%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 13:56
- PP TOI
- 1:16
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.4
- Matchup
- −12%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 38% / 16% / 5%
- Bobby BrinkF · MIN vs CBJ1.26Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 36%
- Best over
- +120
- Books
- 43%
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 12:12
- PP TOI
- 1:18
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.6
- Matchup
- +3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 36% / 14% / 4%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +120 / u −155
- Danila YurovF · MIN vs CBJ1.20Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 34%
- Best over
- +152
- Books
- 40%
- Actual
- 4
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 12:41
- PP TOI
- 1:07
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.1
- Matchup
- +4%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 34% / 13% / 4%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +152 / u −160
- Mike ReillyD · CAR @ CGY1.19Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 12%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 12:48
- PP TOI
- 0:02
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.3
- Matchup
- +9%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 33% / 12% / 4%
- Jonas BrodinD · MIN vs CBJ1.19Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 12%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 20:39
- PP TOI
- 0:11
- SOG/60 5v5
- 3.7
- Matchup
- +4%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 33% / 12% / 4%
- Yakov TreninF · MIN vs CBJ1.19Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 12%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 12:12
- PP TOI
- 0:02
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.9
- Matchup
- +3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 33% / 12% / 4%
- Martin PospisilF · CGY vs CAR1.16Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 12%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 12:46
- PP TOI
- 0:02
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.7
- Matchup
- −12%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 32% / 12% / 4%
- Jesperi KotkaniemiF · CAR @ CGY1.07Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 10%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 4
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 11:36
- PP TOI
- 0:17
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.0
- Matchup
- +8%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 29% / 10% / 3%
- Danton HeinenF · CBJ @ MIN1.03Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 9%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 11:11
- PP TOI
- 0:00
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.8
- Matchup
- −0%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 27% / 9% / 2%
- Maxim TsyplakovF · CGY vs CAR1.02Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 9%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- DNP
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 11:02
- PP TOI
- 1:18
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.9
- Matchup
- −12%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 27% / 9% / 2%
- 0.98Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 8%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 10:19
- PP TOI
- 0:40
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.4
- Matchup
- +0%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 26% / 8% / 2%
- 0.98Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 8%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 8:41
- PP TOI
- 0:07
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.7
- Matchup
- +2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 26% / 8% / 2%
- Adam KlapkaF · CGY vs CAR0.98Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 8%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 4
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 10:34
- PP TOI
- 0:03
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.4
- Matchup
- −12%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 26% / 8% / 2%
- Erik GudbransonD · CBJ @ MIN0.97Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 8%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 18:16
- PP TOI
- 0:00
- SOG/60 5v5
- 3.7
- Matchup
- −1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 26% / 8% / 2%
- Ryan LombergF · CBJ @ MIN0.97Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 8%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 8:42
- PP TOI
- 0:00
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.8
- Matchup
- −0%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 26% / 8% / 2%
- 0.94Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 7%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 10:07
- PP TOI
- 0:00
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.5
- Matchup
- −12%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 24% / 7% / 2%
| Book line | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt BoldyF · MIN vs CBJ | 3.54 | 85% | 66% | 46% | 21:57PP 3:38 | 8.7 | +4% | 3.5 · o +102 / u −105 | 6 |
| Zach WerenskiD · CBJ @ MIN | 3.06 | 79% | 57% | 37% | 29:26PP 3:08 | 6.3 | −2% | 3.5 · o +134 / u −165 | 3 |
| Kirill KaprizovF · MIN vs CBJ | 3.00 | 78% | 56% | 35% | 21:03PP 3:32 | 6.9 | +4% | 3.5 · o +120 / u −145 | 5 |
| Andrei SvechnikovF · CAR @ CGY | 2.88 | 76% | 54% | 33% | 17:54PP 4:16 | 8.1 | +10% | 2.5 · o −115 / u +102 | 1 |
| Joel Eriksson EkF · MIN vs CBJ | 2.72 | 74% | 50% | 29% | 19:56PP 3:19 | 7.3 | +4% | 2.5 · o −130 / u +110 | 2 |
| Adam FantilliF · CBJ @ MIN | 2.64 | 72% | 48% | 28% | 20:53PP 2:54 | 6.9 | −2% | 2.5 · o −103 / u −115 | 2 |
| Sebastian AhoF · CAR @ CGY | 2.62 | 72% | 48% | 27% | 19:40PP 4:14 | 6.8 | +10% | 2.5 · o −104 / u −120 | 3 |
| Jackson BlakeF · CAR @ CGY | 2.58 | 71% | 47% | 27% | 18:17PP 4:18 | 7.4 | +9% | 2.5 · o +110 / u −138 | 2 |
| Nikolaj EhlersF · CAR @ CGY | 2.36 | 67% | 41% | 22% | 16:07PP 4:01 | 7.6 | +10% | 2.5 · o +125 / u −147 | 3 |
| Logan StankovenF · CAR @ CGY | 2.33 | 66% | 41% | 21% | 16:49PP 1:31 | 7.9 | +9% | 2.5 · o +122 / u −143 | 3 |
| Quinn HughesD · MIN vs CBJ | 2.27 | 65% | 39% | 20% | 26:15PP 3:45 | 4.6 | +3% | 2.5 · o +107 / u −125 | 3 |
| Matt CoronatoF · CGY vs CAR | 2.22 | 64% | 38% | 19% | 18:19PP 2:55 | 7.8 | −12% | 2.5 · o +150 / u −165 | 3 |
| Blake ColemanF · MIN vs CBJ | 2.03 | 59% | 33% | 16% | 15:13PP 1:12 | 8.0 | +3% | 1.5 · o −174 / u +135 | 2 |
| Mikael BacklundF · CGY vs CAR | 2.03 | 59% | 33% | 16% | 18:30 | 7.7 | −11% | 2.5 · o +141 / u −170 | 2 |
| Kent JohnsonF · CBJ @ MIN | 2.01 | 58% | 33% | 15% | 16:52PP 2:27 | 6.5 | −2% | 1.5 · o −155 / u +125 | 2 |
| Valeri NichushkinF · CBJ @ MIN | 1.99 | 58% | 32% | 15% | 16:54PP 1:50 | 7.2 | −2% | 1.5 · o −137 / u +116 | 1 |
| Sean WalkerD · CAR @ CGY | 1.96 | 57% | 31% | 14% | 21:44 | 5.3 | +9% | 1.5 · o −115 / u −103 | 2 |
| Shayne GostisbehereD · CAR @ CGY | 1.93 | 56% | 30% | 14% | 17:30PP 4:14 | 5.1 | +9% | 1.5 · o −123 / u +100 | 3 |
| Joel FarabeeF · CGY vs CAR | 1.91 | 56% | 30% | 14% | 19:38PP 2:45 | 6.3 | −11% | 1.5 · o −145 / u +118 | 2 |
| Bradly NadeauF · CAR @ CGY | 1.87 | 55% | 29% | 13% | 16:29PP 1:50 | 6.0 | +8% | 1.5 · o +106 / u −137 | 1 |
| Charlie CoyleF · CBJ @ MIN | 1.87 | 55% | 29% | 13% | 18:58PP 2:39 | 5.8 | −2% | 1.5 · o −118 / u +105 | 2 |
| Ryan HartmanF · MIN vs CBJ | 1.75 | 51% | 26% | 11% | 13:29PP 1:16 | 7.2 | +3% | 1.5 · o −125 / u +102 | 2 |
| Morgan FrostF · CGY vs CAR | 1.69 | 49% | 24% | 10% | 16:45PP 2:55 | 6.1 | −12% | 1.5 · o −110 / u +100 | 3 |
| Sean MonahanF · CBJ @ MIN | 1.68 | 49% | 24% | 10% | 17:21PP 1:42 | 5.8 | −2% | 1.5 · o +115 / u −130 | 0 |
| Matvei GridinF · CGY vs CAR | 1.68 | 49% | 24% | 10% | 15:39PP 2:54 | 6.9 | −12% | 1.5 · o −120 / u +100 | 2 |
| Matthew KniesF · CBJ @ MIN | 1.68 | 49% | 24% | 10% | 18:38PP 2:36 | 4.5 | −2% | 1.5 · o −110 / u −110 | 0 |
| K'Andre MillerD · CAR @ CGY | 1.66 | 49% | 24% | 10% | 22:15PP 1:28 | 4.2 | +9% | 1.5 · o +105 / u −130 | 2 |
| Jordan MartinookF · CAR @ CGY | 1.64 | 48% | 23% | 9% | 14:02 | 6.7 | +10% | – | 2 |
| Cole SillingerF · CBJ @ MIN | 1.60 | 47% | 22% | 9% | 15:37 | 6.3 | −2% | – | 0 |
| Yegor SharangovichF · CGY vs CAR | 1.60 | 47% | 22% | 9% | 16:11PP 1:11 | 6.3 | −12% | 1.5 · o +105 / u −130 | 6 |
| Denton MateychukD · CBJ @ MIN | 1.59 | 47% | 22% | 9% | 23:21PP 1:27 | 4.1 | −1% | – | 1 |
| Maxim ShabanovF · MIN vs CBJ | 1.58 | 46% | 22% | 8% | 14:46PP 3:26 | 5.4 | +4% | 1.5 · o −101 / u −125 | 0 |
| Mathieu OlivierF · CBJ @ MIN | 1.52 | 44% | 20% | 8% | 13:46 | 7.0 | −1% | – | 0 |
| Jalen ChatfieldD · CAR @ CGY | 1.51 | 44% | 20% | 7% | 20:11 | 4.5 | +9% | – | 3 |
| William CarrierF · CAR @ CGY | 1.51 | 44% | 20% | 7% | 13:06 | 6.4 | +9% | – | 2 |
| Jaccob SlavinD · CAR @ CGY | 1.49 | 43% | 19% | 7% | 20:40 | 4.3 | +9% | 1.5 · o +110 / u −135 | 3 |
| Eric RobinsonF · CAR @ CGY | 1.49 | 43% | 19% | 7% | 12:26 | 6.9 | +9% | – | 2 |
| Conor GarlandF · CBJ @ MIN | 1.48 | 43% | 19% | 7% | 13:40PP 1:33 | 6.1 | −1% | 1.5 · o +125 / u −145 | 1 |
| Simon NemecD · CGY vs CAR | 1.45 | 42% | 18% | 7% | 21:12PP 1:13 | 4.4 | −12% | 1.5 · o +124 / u −130 | 1 |
| Mark JankowskiF · CAR @ CGY | 1.44 | 42% | 18% | 6% | 13:54PP 1:02 | 5.9 | +9% | – | DNP |
| Felix Unger SörumF · CAR @ CGYthin | 1.41 | 41% | 17% | 6% | 12:22PP 1:18 | 6.0 | +8% | – | 0 |
| Zayne ParekhD · CGY vs CAR | 1.38 | 40% | 17% | 6% | 18:54PP 2:58 | 4.3 | −12% | 1.5 · o +128 / u −145 | 1 |
| Michael McCarronF · MIN vs CBJ | 1.34 | 38% | 16% | 5% | 13:29 | 6.6 | +3% | – | 0 |
| Aydar SunievF · CGY vs CAR | 1.34 | 38% | 16% | 5% | 13:10PP 1:24 | 6.5 | −12% | 1.5 · o +124 / u −130 | 0 |
| Ryan StromeF · CGY vs CAR | 1.34 | 38% | 16% | 5% | 13:56PP 1:16 | 6.4 | −12% | – | 0 |
| Bobby BrinkF · MIN vs CBJ | 1.26 | 36% | 14% | 4% | 12:12PP 1:18 | 5.6 | +3% | 1.5 · o +120 / u −155 | 0 |
| Danila YurovF · MIN vs CBJ | 1.20 | 34% | 13% | 4% | 12:41PP 1:07 | 5.1 | +4% | 1.5 · o +152 / u −160 | 4 |
| Mike ReillyD · CAR @ CGY | 1.19 | 33% | 12% | 4% | 12:48 | 5.3 | +9% | – | 0 |
| Jonas BrodinD · MIN vs CBJ | 1.19 | 33% | 12% | 4% | 20:39 | 3.7 | +4% | – | 0 |
| Yakov TreninF · MIN vs CBJ | 1.19 | 33% | 12% | 4% | 12:12 | 5.9 | +3% | – | 0 |
| Martin PospisilF · CGY vs CAR | 1.16 | 32% | 12% | 4% | 12:46 | 6.7 | −12% | – | 1 |
| Jesperi KotkaniemiF · CAR @ CGY | 1.07 | 29% | 10% | 3% | 11:36 | 5.0 | +8% | – | 4 |
| Danton HeinenF · CBJ @ MIN | 1.03 | 27% | 9% | 2% | 11:11 | 5.8 | −0% | – | 0 |
| Maxim TsyplakovF · CGY vs CAR | 1.02 | 27% | 9% | 2% | 11:02PP 1:18 | 5.9 | −12% | – | DNP |
| Luca Del Bel BelluzF · CBJ @ MINthin | 0.98 | 26% | 8% | 2% | 10:19 | 5.4 | +0% | – | 0 |
| Tyler PitlickF · MIN vs CBJthin | 0.98 | 26% | 8% | 2% | 8:41 | 6.7 | +2% | – | 1 |
| Adam KlapkaF · CGY vs CAR | 0.98 | 26% | 8% | 2% | 10:34 | 6.4 | −12% | – | 4 |
| Erik GudbransonD · CBJ @ MIN | 0.97 | 26% | 8% | 2% | 18:16 | 3.7 | −1% | – | 0 |
| Ryan LombergF · CBJ @ MIN | 0.97 | 26% | 8% | 2% | 8:42 | 6.8 | −0% | – | 1 |
| Jonathan CastagnaF · CGY vs CARthin | 0.94 | 24% | 7% | 2% | 10:07 | 6.5 | −12% | – | 2 |
How the projections work
- 1. How often he shoots
- For each strength state (5-on-5, power play, shorthanded, other), we take the shooter's unblocked attempts per 60 minutes and the share of them that hit the net, from every game in roughly the last 14 months. Recent games count more (the weight halves every 8 months), and both numbers are shrunk toward the forward or defenseman average, so a hot week or a short history barely moves them. Missed shots recorded in a rink whose scorers log more misses than the league are scaled down using our arena scorer factors.
- 2. How much he will play
- Projected 5-on-5 time is a weighted average of his last 10 games, with the latest counting most. Power-play time is his share of his team's recent PP minutes times the PP time we expect tonight: the average of his team's recent PP time and the opponent's recent shorthanded time. The lineup is whoever dressed in the team's last game, or the forecast lineup when our matchup forecast has one.
- 3. Who he will face
- Every skater gets a 5-on-5 shot-suppression rating from a ridge regression on line changes (RAPM-style): unblocked attempts against while he is on the ice, adjusted for his teammates, the opponents and home ice, with every rating pulled toward zero. A shooter's matchup factor averages the opposing skaters' ratings, weighted by the minutes he is expected to share with each. Those minutes come from the matchup forecast (which knows the home coach has last change) when it is available; otherwise from each opponent's projected 5-on-5 time.
- 4. Power play and venue
- Power-play shots are scaled by the opponent's shots allowed per 60 while shorthanded, shrunk toward the league rate. Home teams shoot a little more at 5-on-5; the home and road split comes from the same regression.
- 5. From an average to a probability
- Shots in one game spread out more than a simple Poisson count, because ice time and role move from night to night. We use a negative binomial distribution whose extra spread was fit on last season's out-of-sample projections, then read off P(2+), P(3+) and P(4+) shots.
Last fit Oct 20: 1,534 games, 998 skaters rated.
How accurate is it?
Held-out test: Oct 7, 2025 – Apr 16, 2026
Every game in the test season was projected using only data from before that day, the way the live model works. Lineups were the players who dressed; ice time was projected, not known. Shots on goal are the official count (shootout attempts excluded), arena scorer factors came from the previous season, and the spread of the distribution was fit on the previous season. Lower log-loss is better. The live model scored 1.5332 against 1.5441 for a shots-per-game baseline given the same distribution (mean squared error 1.723 vs 1.757). Defender matchup ratings improved on the team-level adjustment by +0.00026 nats per projection (95% interval +0.00001 to +0.00053, resampling whole games); mean squared error 1.724 → 1.723. The gain also showed up in the tuning season. It is a real but very small effect. Even with perfect knowledge of who played against whom, the gain would be 0.0000: ice time and the shooter's own volume dominate.
| Model | Projections | Log-loss | Mean sq. error | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots per game, last 12 months | 47,230 | 1.5441 | 1.757 | 0.441 |
| Shooter rate × projected ice time | 47,230 | 1.5352 | 1.730 | 0.455 |
| + opponent team 5v5 and penalty kill | 47,230 | 1.5335 | 1.724 | 0.458 |
| + defender ratings by expected matchup (live model) | 47,230 | 1.5332 | 1.723 | 0.458 |
| Hindsight: actual matchups (upper bound, not usable) | 47,230 | 1.5332 | 1.723 | 0.458 |
Show as a table
| Line | Bin | n | Projected | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ SOG | 0–10% | 169 | 7.7% | 9.5% |
| 2+ SOG | 10–20% | 3,633 | 16.6% | 16.2% |
| 2+ SOG | 20–30% | 8,907 | 25.3% | 22.9% |
| 2+ SOG | 30–40% | 9,632 | 34.9% | 32.8% |
| 2+ SOG | 40–50% | 8,016 | 44.8% | 43.5% |
| 2+ SOG | 50–60% | 6,692 | 55.0% | 54.5% |
| 2+ SOG | 60–70% | 5,722 | 64.6% | 64.7% |
| 2+ SOG | 70–80% | 3,375 | 74.5% | 74.8% |
| 2+ SOG | 80–90% | 1,067 | 83.0% | 84.7% |
| 2+ SOG | 90–100% | 17 | 90.9% | 100.0% |
| 3+ SOG | 0–10% | 11,961 | 6.5% | 5.9% |
| 3+ SOG | 10–20% | 13,994 | 14.6% | 13.7% |
| 3+ SOG | 20–30% | 8,264 | 24.6% | 23.8% |
| 3+ SOG | 30–40% | 6,282 | 34.8% | 35.5% |
| 3+ SOG | 40–50% | 3,719 | 44.6% | 44.1% |
| 3+ SOG | 50–60% | 2,071 | 54.7% | 56.7% |
| 3+ SOG | 60–70% | 826 | 63.6% | 66.7% |
| 3+ SOG | 70–80% | 112 | 73.1% | 72.3% |
| 3+ SOG | 80–90% | 1 | 80.2% | 0.0% |
| 4+ SOG | 0–10% | 30,086 | 4.1% | 3.8% |
| 4+ SOG | 10–20% | 9,863 | 14.5% | 14.8% |
| 4+ SOG | 20–30% | 4,442 | 24.3% | 24.4% |
| 4+ SOG | 30–40% | 2,020 | 34.6% | 34.6% |
| 4+ SOG | 40–50% | 695 | 43.7% | 44.7% |
| 4+ SOG | 50–60% | 116 | 53.6% | 57.8% |
| 4+ SOG | 60–70% | 8 | 61.8% | 75.0% |
This season so far
3,616 projections across 106 games through Oct 20: 1.54 expected SOG per skater against 1.54 actual.
Show as a table
| Line | Bin | n | Projected | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ SOG | 0–10% | 22 | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 2+ SOG | 10–20% | 246 | 16.4% | 17.5% |
| 2+ SOG | 20–30% | 677 | 25.3% | 21.7% |
| 2+ SOG | 30–40% | 825 | 34.7% | 35.9% |
| 2+ SOG | 40–50% | 641 | 44.8% | 48.0% |
| 2+ SOG | 50–60% | 523 | 54.7% | 50.9% |
| 2+ SOG | 60–70% | 397 | 65.0% | 63.7% |
| 2+ SOG | 70–80% | 223 | 74.1% | 78.0% |
| 2+ SOG | 80–90% | 62 | 82.2% | 79.0% |
| 3+ SOG | 0–10% | 868 | 6.5% | 6.8% |
| 3+ SOG | 10–20% | 1,181 | 14.3% | 14.2% |
| 3+ SOG | 20–30% | 683 | 24.6% | 24.7% |
| 3+ SOG | 30–40% | 422 | 34.7% | 31.8% |
| 3+ SOG | 40–50% | 290 | 44.5% | 46.9% |
| 3+ SOG | 50–60% | 120 | 54.8% | 55.8% |
| 3+ SOG | 60–70% | 51 | 63.0% | 72.5% |
| 3+ SOG | 70–80% | 1 | 71.1% | 0.0% |
| 4+ SOG | 0–10% | 2,390 | 4.1% | 4.4% |
| 4+ SOG | 10–20% | 709 | 14.1% | 12.7% |
| 4+ SOG | 20–30% | 365 | 24.2% | 23.6% |
| 4+ SOG | 30–40% | 108 | 35.3% | 41.7% |
| 4+ SOG | 40–50% | 43 | 43.1% | 51.2% |
| 4+ SOG | 50–60% | 1 | 51.9% | 0.0% |
FAQ
How are NHL shots on goal projections calculated?
Expected SOG = projected ice time at each strength × the shooter's shrunk shots-per-60 at that strength × a matchup factor. The matchup factor comes from the shot-suppression ratings of the opposing skaters he is expected to face at 5-on-5, and from the opponent's penalty kill on the power play. The probabilities come from a negative binomial distribution fit on last season.
Are these betting picks?
No. These are model projections, not bets. The table shows the sportsbook shots line and best prices from up to five US books for context. Since we started logging our projections against those lines before each game (October 2026), the books have been about as accurate as the model on shots on goal, which is not an edge once the bookmaker margin is paid. A 60% projection still misses four times in ten, and the calibration section shows how the probabilities have held up.
How accurate are the projections?
We test the model the way it is used: for every game of a full held-out season, it only sees data from before that day. The methodology section on this page shows the log-loss against a simple shots-per-game baseline and a calibration chart. When we say 40%, it should happen about 40% of the time.
Is this the same SOG number as the daily projections table?
Yes. Tonight's shots on goal and time on ice in the daily fantasy projections table come from this model, so a skater shows the same expected SOG on both pages. On the first graded nights of the season it beat the provider projection it replaced on squared error, log-loss and correlation with actual shots.
Does the opposing defense pair really matter?
Somewhat, and less than ice time and the shooter's own volume. The page reports how much the matchup factor improves accuracy over a team-level adjustment, and how repeatable the defender ratings are from one half of the games to the other. Most matchup factors land between 0.9 and 1.1.
When do the projections update?
Overnight, after the previous night's games, and again during the day as lineups settle. Players who did not dress in their team's last game are left out until they do, so check confirmed lines before puck drop.
Why is a player I expected missing?
The lineup comes from the team's most recent game (or the matchup forecast when it has one). A player returning from injury or a healthy scratch is not projected until he dresses again.