Shot Prop Lab
Shots on Goal Projections for Saturday, October 17, 2026
Expected shots on goal for every skater on tonight's slate, and the chance he clears 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5. Each number starts from the shooter's own attempt rate and accuracy, times the ice time we expect him to get at 5-on-5 and on the power play, then adjusts for the defenders he is likely to face and how well the opponent kills penalties.
14 games, 504 skaters · updated Oct 17, 5:50 PM ET · model shotprops-1.1.0. Projections, not picks. Book lines from 5 US sportsbooks (via The Odds API) are in the table as context, not as picks. Live since Oct 12 (1,094 graded lines): about even on shots on goal. Even with the books is not an edge once the margin is paid.
Final: 477 skaters played. Projected 723 shots in total, actual 720. Of the 25 skaters we gave a 50%+ chance of 3+ shots, 13 got there (52%; projected 57%).
Most likely to get 3+ shots
- Jason RobertsonDAL @ CHI67% · 3.59
- Brandon HagelTBL vs VAN64% · 3.42
- Alex DeBrincatDET vs SJS64% · 3.41
- Auston MatthewsTOR vs NYI63% · 3.36
- Tage ThompsonBUF @ MTL62% · 3.31
- Nikita KucherovTBL vs VAN61% · 3.26
Softest 5v5 matchups
- Jason RobertsonDAL @ CHI+12% (+0.28) · 3.59
- Brandon HagelTBL vs VAN+10% (+0.22) · 3.42
- Nikita KucherovTBL vs VAN+9% (+0.19) · 3.26
- Brady TkachukFLA vs SEA+9% (+0.17) · 2.93
- Sam BennettFLA vs SEA+9% (+0.17) · 2.49
- Mikko RantanenDAL @ CHI+12% (+0.17) · 2.47
Toughest 5v5 matchups
- Kyle ConnorWPG vs CAR−13% (−0.26) · 2.71
- Cole PerfettiWPG vs CAR−13% (−0.22) · 2.13
- Connor BedardCHI vs DAL−8% (−0.15) · 2.77
- Connor McDavidEDM @ UTA−7% (−0.15) · 3.01
- Patrick KaneCHI vs DAL−8% (−0.14) · 2.35
- Rickard RakellPIT @ VGK−8% (−0.13) · 2.33
Every skater, Oct 17
Games: NJD @ WSH 1:00 PM ET · CAR @ WPG 3:30 PM ET · VAN @ TBL 4:00 PM ET · SEA @ FLA 6:00 PM ET · NYI @ TOR 7:00 PM ET · BUF @ MTL 7:00 PM ET · SJS @ DET 7:00 PM ET · OTT @ PHI 7:00 PM ET · NYR @ CBJ 7:00 PM ET · DAL @ CHI 7:00 PM ET · STL @ NSH 8:00 PM ET · BOS @ LAK 9:00 PM ET · EDM @ UTA 10:00 PM ET · PIT @ VGK 10:00 PM ET. Matchup is the 5-on-5 adjustment for the defenders he is expected to face and home ice (+5% = 5% more shots than his usual rate).
504 skaters
- Jason RobertsonF · DAL @ CHI3.59Exp SOG
- Over 3.5
- 47%
- Best over
- +116
- Books
- 44%
- Actual
- 7
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 21:19
- PP TOI
- 3:45
- SOG/60 5v5
- 8.8
- Matchup
- +12%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 85% / 67% / 47%
- Book line
- 3.5 · o +116 / u −140
- Brandon HagelF · TBL vs VAN3.42Exp SOG
- Over 3.5
- 44%
- Best over
- +125
- Books
- 42%
- Actual
- 5
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 22:07
- PP TOI
- 3:30
- SOG/60 5v5
- 8.9
- Matchup
- +10%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 83% / 64% / 44%
- Book line
- 3.5 · o +125 / u −150
- Alex DeBrincatF · DET vs SJS3.41Exp SOG
- Over 3.5
- 44%
- Best over
- +110
- Books
- 46%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 19:46
- PP TOI
- 3:24
- SOG/60 5v5
- 9.4
- Matchup
- +1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 83% / 64% / 44%
- Book line
- 3.5 · o +110 / u −130
- Auston MatthewsF · TOR vs NYI3.36Exp SOG
- Over 3.5
- 43%
- Best over
- −110
- Books
- 50%
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 20:53
- PP TOI
- 3:39
- SOG/60 5v5
- 8.8
- Matchup
- +3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 83% / 63% / 43%
- Book line
- 3.5 · o −110 / u −103
- Tage ThompsonF · BUF @ MTL3.31Exp SOG
- Over 3.5
- 42%
- Best over
- +122
- Books
- 43%
- Actual
- 5
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 20:35
- PP TOI
- 3:43
- SOG/60 5v5
- 9.2
- Matchup
- −6%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 82% / 62% / 42%
- Book line
- 3.5 · o +122 / u −148
- Nikita KucherovF · TBL vs VAN3.26Exp SOG
- Over 3.5
- 41%
- Best over
- +132
- Books
- 42%
- Actual
- 7
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 21:14
- PP TOI
- 3:57
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.9
- Matchup
- +9%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 81% / 61% / 41%
- Book line
- 3.5 · o +132 / u −160
- Jack HughesF · NJD @ WSH3.18Exp SOG
- Over 3.5
- 39%
- Best over
- +106
- Books
- 46%
- Actual
- 4
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 20:14
- PP TOI
- 3:26
- SOG/60 5v5
- 8.9
- Matchup
- +1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 80% / 60% / 39%
- Book line
- 3.5 · o +106 / u −120
- Filip ForsbergF · NSH vs STL3.07Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 58%
- Best over
- −167
- Books
- 59%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 20:06
- PP TOI
- 3:50
- SOG/60 5v5
- 8.3
- Matchup
- +3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 79% / 58% / 37%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o −167 / u +130
- Cole CaufieldF · MTL vs BUF3.07Exp SOG
- Over 3.5
- 37%
- Best over
- +112
- Books
- 45%
- Actual
- 5
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 20:02
- PP TOI
- 3:32
- SOG/60 5v5
- 8.3
- Matchup
- +0%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 79% / 57% / 37%
- Book line
- 3.5 · o +112 / u −135
- Zach WerenskiD · CBJ vs NYR3.04Exp SOG
- Over 3.5
- 36%
- Best over
- +115
- Books
- 44%
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 28:23
- PP TOI
- 3:05
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.3
- Matchup
- +1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 79% / 57% / 36%
- Book line
- 3.5 · o +115 / u −135
- Over 2.5
- 56%
- Best over
- −155
- Books
- 58%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 20:17
- PP TOI
- 3:51
- SOG/60 5v5
- 8.2
- Matchup
- +3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 78% / 56% / 36%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o −155 / u +134
- Connor McDavidF · EDM @ UTA3.01Exp SOG
- Over 3.5
- 36%
- Best over
- +125
- Books
- 43%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 23:30
- PP TOI
- 3:21
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.1
- Matchup
- −7%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 78% / 56% / 36%
- Book line
- 3.5 · o +125 / u −150
- Adrian KempeF · LAK vs BOS2.94Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 55%
- Best over
- −154
- Books
- 58%
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 20:23
- PP TOI
- 3:37
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.6
- Matchup
- +6%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 77% / 55% / 34%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o −154 / u +125
- David PastrnakF · BOS @ LAK2.93Exp SOG
- Over 3.5
- 34%
- Best over
- +118
- Books
- 44%
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 19:33
- PP TOI
- 2:53
- SOG/60 5v5
- 8.5
- Matchup
- −2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 77% / 55% / 34%
- Book line
- 3.5 · o +118 / u −145
- Brady TkachukF · FLA vs SEA2.93Exp SOG
- Over 3.5
- 34%
- Best over
- +112
- Books
- 45%
- Actual
- 7
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 16:22
- PP TOI
- 2:57
- SOG/60 5v5
- 9.3
- Matchup
- +9%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 77% / 55% / 34%
- Book line
- 3.5 · o +112 / u −135
- Viktor ArvidssonF · DET vs SJS2.92Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 55%
- Best over
- −115
- Books
- 51%
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 18:44
- PP TOI
- 3:19
- SOG/60 5v5
- 8.9
- Matchup
- +1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 77% / 55% / 34%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o −115 / u +100
- Macklin CelebriniF · SJS @ DET2.92Exp SOG
- Over 3.5
- 34%
- Best over
- +125
- Books
- 43%
- Actual
- 7
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 20:40
- PP TOI
- 3:05
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.3
- Matchup
- −4%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 77% / 54% / 34%
- Book line
- 3.5 · o +125 / u −146
- Matthew SchaeferD · NYI @ TOR2.91Exp SOG
- Over 3.5
- 33%
- Best over
- +118
- Books
- 43%
- Actual
- 5
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 27:18
- PP TOI
- 4:08
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.7
- Matchup
- +3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 77% / 54% / 33%
- Book line
- 3.5 · o +118 / u −150
- Artemi PanarinF · LAK vs BOS2.88Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 54%
- Best over
- −118
- Books
- 54%
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 21:22
- PP TOI
- 4:17
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.0
- Matchup
- +6%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 76% / 54% / 33%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o −118 / u +115
- Dylan LarkinF · DET vs SJS2.87Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 53%
- Best over
- −135
- Books
- 55%
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 21:00
- PP TOI
- 3:43
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.0
- Matchup
- +1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 76% / 53% / 33%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o −135 / u +116
- Connor BedardF · CHI vs DAL2.77Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 51%
- Best over
- −114
- Books
- 51%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 20:43
- PP TOI
- 4:14
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.5
- Matchup
- −8%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 74% / 51% / 31%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o −114 / u −105
- William NylanderF · TOR vs NYI2.77Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 51%
- Best over
- −135
- Books
- 55%
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 20:52
- PP TOI
- 3:40
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.1
- Matchup
- +3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 74% / 51% / 31%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o −135 / u +112
- Darren RaddyshD · TOR vs NYI2.73Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Best over
- −103
- Books
- 49%
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 24:13
- PP TOI
- 3:43
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.2
- Matchup
- +2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 74% / 50% / 30%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o −103 / u −115
- Quinton ByfieldF · LAK vs BOS2.73Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Best over
- +138
- Books
- 43%
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 20:44
- PP TOI
- 3:38
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.8
- Matchup
- +5%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 74% / 50% / 30%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +138 / u −150
- Dylan GuentherF · UTA vs EDM2.72Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Best over
- −132
- Books
- 55%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 16:00
- PP TOI
- 3:26
- SOG/60 5v5
- 9.1
- Matchup
- −4%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 74% / 50% / 29%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o −132 / u +110
- Kyle ConnorF · WPG vs CAR2.71Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Best over
- −161
- Books
- 58%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 20:15
- PP TOI
- 4:00
- SOG/60 5v5
- 8.8
- Matchup
- −13%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 73% / 50% / 29%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o −161 / u +130
- Alex LaferriereF · LAK vs BOS2.68Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 49%
- Best over
- −108
- Books
- 50%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 18:16
- PP TOI
- 2:47
- SOG/60 5v5
- 8.0
- Matchup
- +6%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 73% / 49% / 29%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o −108 / u −114
- Jimmy SnuggerudF · STL @ NSH2.68Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 49%
- Best over
- −105
- Books
- 49%
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 18:57
- PP TOI
- 2:32
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.7
- Matchup
- +7%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 73% / 49% / 29%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o −105 / u −115
- Jack QuinnF · BUF @ MTL2.65Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 48%
- Best over
- +120
- Books
- 45%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 19:00
- PP TOI
- 3:41
- SOG/60 5v5
- 8.1
- Matchup
- −6%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 72% / 48% / 28%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +120 / u −125
- Dylan HollowayF · STL @ NSH2.63Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 48%
- Best over
- +106
- Books
- 47%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 19:42
- PP TOI
- 2:37
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.3
- Matchup
- +7%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 72% / 48% / 28%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +106 / u −130
- Leon DraisaitlF · EDM @ UTA2.63Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 48%
- Best over
- −135
- Books
- 55%
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 21:20
- PP TOI
- 3:22
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.1
- Matchup
- −6%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 72% / 48% / 28%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o −135 / u +118
- Andrei SvechnikovF · CAR @ WPG2.62Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 48%
- Best over
- −118
- Books
- 51%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 17:32
- PP TOI
- 3:46
- SOG/60 5v5
- 8.1
- Matchup
- −0%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 72% / 48% / 27%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o −118 / u −105
- Jake GuentzelF · TBL vs VAN2.62Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 48%
- Best over
- −118
- Books
- 52%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 19:26
- PP TOI
- 3:54
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.9
- Matchup
- +10%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 72% / 48% / 27%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o −118 / u +100
- Jack EichelF · VGK vs PIT2.57Exp SOG
- Over 3.5
- 26%
- Best over
- +130
- Books
- 42%
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 18:49
- PP TOI
- 3:29
- SOG/60 5v5
- 8.0
- Matchup
- +1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 71% / 47% / 26%
- Book line
- 3.5 · o +130 / u −155
- Kirill MarchenkoF · TOR vs NYI2.55Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 46%
- Best over
- −118
- Books
- 54%
- Actual
- 5
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 18:32
- PP TOI
- 3:22
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.2
- Matchup
- +2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 70% / 46% / 26%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o −118 / u +105
- Timo MeierF · NJD @ WSH2.54Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 46%
- Best over
- −140
- Books
- 55%
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 15:01
- PP TOI
- 0:55
- SOG/60 5v5
- 9.8
- Matchup
- +2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 70% / 46% / 26%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o −140 / u +120
- Mason McTavishF · STL @ NSH2.54Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 46%
- Best over
- +106
- Books
- 47%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 16:52
- PP TOI
- 2:16
- SOG/60 5v5
- 8.1
- Matchup
- +7%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 70% / 46% / 26%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +106 / u −130
- Over 2.5
- 46%
- Best over
- +130
- Books
- 41%
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 19:08
- PP TOI
- 1:59
- SOG/60 5v5
- 8.4
- Matchup
- −3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 70% / 46% / 26%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +130 / u −154
- Nick SuzukiF · MTL vs BUF2.52Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 45%
- Best over
- +110
- Books
- 46%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 22:13
- PP TOI
- 3:34
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.8
- Matchup
- +0%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 70% / 45% / 25%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +110 / u −135
- Adam FantilliF · CBJ vs NYR2.51Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 45%
- Best over
- −130
- Books
- 54%
- Actual
- 5
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 19:58
- PP TOI
- 2:51
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.8
- Matchup
- +0%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 70% / 45% / 25%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o −130 / u +107
- Sam BennettF · FLA vs SEA2.49Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 45%
- Best over
- +102
- Books
- 48%
- Actual
- 4
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 17:50
- PP TOI
- 1:54
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.4
- Matchup
- +9%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 69% / 45% / 25%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +102 / u −125
- Matthew TkachukF · FLA vs SEA2.48Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 45%
- Best over
- −115
- Books
- 52%
- Actual
- 4
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 18:13
- PP TOI
- 3:11
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.8
- Matchup
- +9%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 69% / 45% / 25%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o −115 / u +110
- Pavel DorofeyevF · NYR @ CBJ2.48Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 45%
- Best over
- −115
- Books
- 53%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 16:48
- PP TOI
- 2:46
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.8
- Matchup
- +1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 69% / 45% / 25%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o −115 / u +105
- Juraj SlafkovskýF · MTL vs BUF2.48Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 44%
- Best over
- +105
- Books
- 49%
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 19:38
- PP TOI
- 3:32
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.9
- Matchup
- +0%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 69% / 44% / 24%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +105 / u −115
- Mikko RantanenF · DAL @ CHI2.47Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 44%
- Best over
- +135
- Books
- 42%
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 21:53
- PP TOI
- 4:11
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.2
- Matchup
- +12%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 69% / 44% / 24%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +135 / u −155
- Jakob ChychrunD · WSH vs NJD2.46Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 44%
- Best over
- +105
- Books
- 46%
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 25:02
- PP TOI
- 2:35
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.8
- Matchup
- −3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 69% / 44% / 24%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +105 / u −120
- Sam ReinhartF · FLA vs SEA2.46Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 44%
- Best over
- +104
- Books
- 47%
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 19:14
- PP TOI
- 3:23
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.6
- Matchup
- +9%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 69% / 44% / 24%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +104 / u −125
- Sebastian AhoF · CAR @ WPG2.44Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 43%
- Best over
- +106
- Books
- 47%
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 19:31
- PP TOI
- 3:43
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.9
- Matchup
- −0%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 68% / 43% / 24%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +106 / u −125
- Mika ZibanejadF · NYR @ CBJ2.43Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 43%
- Best over
- +102
- Books
- 48%
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 19:49
- PP TOI
- 3:21
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.4
- Matchup
- +1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 68% / 43% / 24%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +102 / u −118
- Carter VerhaegheF · FLA vs SEA2.42Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 43%
- Best over
- −112
- Books
- 50%
- Actual
- 5
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 18:08
- PP TOI
- 2:48
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.8
- Matchup
- +10%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 68% / 43% / 23%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o −112 / u −110
- Owen TippettF · PHI vs OTT2.42Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 43%
- Best over
- +110
- Books
- 45%
- Actual
- DNP
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 17:22
- PP TOI
- 2:05
- SOG/60 5v5
- 8.2
- Matchup
- −3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 68% / 43% / 23%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +110 / u −130
- Steven StamkosF · NSH vs STL2.39Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 42%
- Best over
- +118
- Books
- 46%
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 18:20
- PP TOI
- 3:48
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.2
- Matchup
- +3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 67% / 42% / 23%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +118 / u −135
- Roope HintzF · DAL @ CHI2.36Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 41%
- Best over
- +130
- Books
- 41%
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 17:44
- PP TOI
- 3:22
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.4
- Matchup
- +12%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 67% / 41% / 22%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +130 / u −155
- Lucas RaymondF · DET vs SJS2.36Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 41%
- Best over
- +135
- Books
- 43%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 19:30
- PP TOI
- 3:35
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.3
- Matchup
- +1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 67% / 41% / 22%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +135 / u −150
- Patrick KaneF · CHI vs DAL2.35Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 67%
- Best over
- −161
- Books
- 59%
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 20:12
- PP TOI
- 4:00
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.8
- Matchup
- −8%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 67% / 41% / 22%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −161 / u +130
- Evan BouchardD · EDM @ UTA2.34Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 41%
- Best over
- −103
- Books
- 48%
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 25:00
- PP TOI
- 3:27
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.5
- Matchup
- −7%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 66% / 41% / 22%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o −103 / u −115
- Rickard RakellF · PIT @ VGK2.33Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 41%
- Best over
- +145
- Books
- 39%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 18:53
- PP TOI
- 3:10
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.4
- Matchup
- −8%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 66% / 41% / 21%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +145 / u −165
- Clayton KellerF · UTA vs EDM2.30Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 40%
- Best over
- +110
- Books
- 47%
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 17:19
- PP TOI
- 3:24
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.5
- Matchup
- −5%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 65% / 40% / 21%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +110 / u −120
- Trevor MooreF · LAK vs BOS2.28Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 39%
- Best over
- +115
- Books
- 45%
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 16:55
- PP TOI
- 0:53
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.9
- Matchup
- +6%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 65% / 39% / 20%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +115 / u −137
- Jack RoslovicF · TOR vs NYI2.27Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 65%
- Best over
- −175
- Books
- 61%
- Actual
- 5
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 17:00
- PP TOI
- 1:06
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.7
- Matchup
- +3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 65% / 39% / 20%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −175 / u +152
| Book line | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason RobertsonF · DAL @ CHI | 3.59 | 85% | 67% | 47% | 21:19PP 3:45 | 8.8 | +12% | 3.5 · o +116 / u −140 | 7 |
| Brandon HagelF · TBL vs VAN | 3.42 | 83% | 64% | 44% | 22:07PP 3:30 | 8.9 | +10% | 3.5 · o +125 / u −150 | 5 |
| Alex DeBrincatF · DET vs SJS | 3.41 | 83% | 64% | 44% | 19:46PP 3:24 | 9.4 | +1% | 3.5 · o +110 / u −130 | 2 |
| Auston MatthewsF · TOR vs NYI | 3.36 | 83% | 63% | 43% | 20:53PP 3:39 | 8.8 | +3% | 3.5 · o −110 / u −103 | 1 |
| Tage ThompsonF · BUF @ MTL | 3.31 | 82% | 62% | 42% | 20:35PP 3:43 | 9.2 | −6% | 3.5 · o +122 / u −148 | 5 |
| Nikita KucherovF · TBL vs VAN | 3.26 | 81% | 61% | 41% | 21:14PP 3:57 | 7.9 | +9% | 3.5 · o +132 / u −160 | 7 |
| Jack HughesF · NJD @ WSH | 3.18 | 80% | 60% | 39% | 20:14PP 3:26 | 8.9 | +1% | 3.5 · o +106 / u −120 | 4 |
| Filip ForsbergF · NSH vs STL | 3.07 | 79% | 58% | 37% | 20:06PP 3:50 | 8.3 | +3% | 2.5 · o −167 / u +130 | 2 |
| Cole CaufieldF · MTL vs BUF | 3.07 | 79% | 57% | 37% | 20:02PP 3:32 | 8.3 | +0% | 3.5 · o +112 / u −135 | 5 |
| Zach WerenskiD · CBJ vs NYR | 3.04 | 79% | 57% | 36% | 28:23PP 3:05 | 6.3 | +1% | 3.5 · o +115 / u −135 | 1 |
| Bo HorvatF · NYI @ TOR | 3.02 | 78% | 56% | 36% | 20:17PP 3:51 | 8.2 | +3% | 2.5 · o −155 / u +134 | 2 |
| Connor McDavidF · EDM @ UTA | 3.01 | 78% | 56% | 36% | 23:30PP 3:21 | 7.1 | −7% | 3.5 · o +125 / u −150 | 2 |
| Adrian KempeF · LAK vs BOS | 2.94 | 77% | 55% | 34% | 20:23PP 3:37 | 7.6 | +6% | 2.5 · o −154 / u +125 | 1 |
| David PastrnakF · BOS @ LAK | 2.93 | 77% | 55% | 34% | 19:33PP 2:53 | 8.5 | −2% | 3.5 · o +118 / u −145 | 3 |
| Brady TkachukF · FLA vs SEA | 2.93 | 77% | 55% | 34% | 16:22PP 2:57 | 9.3 | +9% | 3.5 · o +112 / u −135 | 7 |
| Viktor ArvidssonF · DET vs SJS | 2.92 | 77% | 55% | 34% | 18:44PP 3:19 | 8.9 | +1% | 2.5 · o −115 / u +100 | 3 |
| Macklin CelebriniF · SJS @ DET | 2.92 | 77% | 54% | 34% | 20:40PP 3:05 | 7.3 | −4% | 3.5 · o +125 / u −146 | 7 |
| Matthew SchaeferD · NYI @ TOR | 2.91 | 77% | 54% | 33% | 27:18PP 4:08 | 5.7 | +3% | 3.5 · o +118 / u −150 | 5 |
| Artemi PanarinF · LAK vs BOS | 2.88 | 76% | 54% | 33% | 21:22PP 4:17 | 6.0 | +6% | 2.5 · o −118 / u +115 | 3 |
| Dylan LarkinF · DET vs SJS | 2.87 | 76% | 53% | 33% | 21:00PP 3:43 | 7.0 | +1% | 2.5 · o −135 / u +116 | 1 |
| Connor BedardF · CHI vs DAL | 2.77 | 74% | 51% | 31% | 20:43PP 4:14 | 7.5 | −8% | 2.5 · o −114 / u −105 | 2 |
| William NylanderF · TOR vs NYI | 2.77 | 74% | 51% | 31% | 20:52PP 3:40 | 7.1 | +3% | 2.5 · o −135 / u +112 | 1 |
| Darren RaddyshD · TOR vs NYI | 2.73 | 74% | 50% | 30% | 24:13PP 3:43 | 6.2 | +2% | 2.5 · o −103 / u −115 | 3 |
| Quinton ByfieldF · LAK vs BOS | 2.73 | 74% | 50% | 30% | 20:44PP 3:38 | 6.8 | +5% | 2.5 · o +138 / u −150 | 1 |
| Dylan GuentherF · UTA vs EDM | 2.72 | 74% | 50% | 29% | 16:00PP 3:26 | 9.1 | −4% | 2.5 · o −132 / u +110 | 2 |
| Kyle ConnorF · WPG vs CAR | 2.71 | 73% | 50% | 29% | 20:15PP 4:00 | 8.8 | −13% | 2.5 · o −161 / u +130 | 2 |
| Alex LaferriereF · LAK vs BOS | 2.68 | 73% | 49% | 29% | 18:16PP 2:47 | 8.0 | +6% | 2.5 · o −108 / u −114 | 2 |
| Jimmy SnuggerudF · STL @ NSH | 2.68 | 73% | 49% | 29% | 18:57PP 2:32 | 7.7 | +7% | 2.5 · o −105 / u −115 | 3 |
| Jack QuinnF · BUF @ MTL | 2.65 | 72% | 48% | 28% | 19:00PP 3:41 | 8.1 | −6% | 2.5 · o +120 / u −125 | 2 |
| Dylan HollowayF · STL @ NSH | 2.63 | 72% | 48% | 28% | 19:42PP 2:37 | 7.3 | +7% | 2.5 · o +106 / u −130 | 2 |
| Leon DraisaitlF · EDM @ UTA | 2.63 | 72% | 48% | 28% | 21:20PP 3:22 | 6.1 | −6% | 2.5 · o −135 / u +118 | 1 |
| Andrei SvechnikovF · CAR @ WPG | 2.62 | 72% | 48% | 27% | 17:32PP 3:46 | 8.1 | −0% | 2.5 · o −118 / u −105 | 2 |
| Jake GuentzelF · TBL vs VAN | 2.62 | 72% | 48% | 27% | 19:26PP 3:54 | 6.9 | +10% | 2.5 · o −118 / u +100 | 2 |
| Jack EichelF · VGK vs PIT | 2.57 | 71% | 47% | 26% | 18:49PP 3:29 | 8.0 | +1% | 3.5 · o +130 / u −155 | 0 |
| Kirill MarchenkoF · TOR vs NYI | 2.55 | 70% | 46% | 26% | 18:32PP 3:22 | 7.2 | +2% | 2.5 · o −118 / u +105 | 5 |
| Timo MeierF · NJD @ WSH | 2.54 | 70% | 46% | 26% | 15:01 | 9.8 | +2% | 2.5 · o −140 / u +120 | 3 |
| Mason McTavishF · STL @ NSH | 2.54 | 70% | 46% | 26% | 16:52PP 2:16 | 8.1 | +7% | 2.5 · o +106 / u −130 | 2 |
| Alex TuchF · WSH vs NJD | 2.53 | 70% | 46% | 26% | 19:08PP 1:59 | 8.4 | −3% | 2.5 · o +130 / u −154 | 3 |
| Nick SuzukiF · MTL vs BUF | 2.52 | 70% | 45% | 25% | 22:13PP 3:34 | 5.8 | +0% | 2.5 · o +110 / u −135 | 2 |
| Adam FantilliF · CBJ vs NYR | 2.51 | 70% | 45% | 25% | 19:58PP 2:51 | 6.8 | +0% | 2.5 · o −130 / u +107 | 5 |
| Sam BennettF · FLA vs SEA | 2.49 | 69% | 45% | 25% | 17:50PP 1:54 | 7.4 | +9% | 2.5 · o +102 / u −125 | 4 |
| Matthew TkachukF · FLA vs SEA | 2.48 | 69% | 45% | 25% | 18:13PP 3:11 | 6.8 | +9% | 2.5 · o −115 / u +110 | 4 |
| Pavel DorofeyevF · NYR @ CBJ | 2.48 | 69% | 45% | 25% | 16:48PP 2:46 | 7.8 | +1% | 2.5 · o −115 / u +105 | 2 |
| Juraj SlafkovskýF · MTL vs BUF | 2.48 | 69% | 44% | 24% | 19:38PP 3:32 | 5.9 | +0% | 2.5 · o +105 / u −115 | 1 |
| Mikko RantanenF · DAL @ CHI | 2.47 | 69% | 44% | 24% | 21:53PP 4:11 | 5.2 | +12% | 2.5 · o +135 / u −155 | 1 |
| Jakob ChychrunD · WSH vs NJD | 2.46 | 69% | 44% | 24% | 25:02PP 2:35 | 5.8 | −3% | 2.5 · o +105 / u −120 | 1 |
| Sam ReinhartF · FLA vs SEA | 2.46 | 69% | 44% | 24% | 19:14PP 3:23 | 5.6 | +9% | 2.5 · o +104 / u −125 | 3 |
| Sebastian AhoF · CAR @ WPG | 2.44 | 68% | 43% | 24% | 19:31PP 3:43 | 6.9 | −0% | 2.5 · o +106 / u −125 | 0 |
| Mika ZibanejadF · NYR @ CBJ | 2.43 | 68% | 43% | 24% | 19:49PP 3:21 | 6.4 | +1% | 2.5 · o +102 / u −118 | 1 |
| Carter VerhaegheF · FLA vs SEA | 2.42 | 68% | 43% | 23% | 18:08PP 2:48 | 6.8 | +10% | 2.5 · o −112 / u −110 | 5 |
| Owen TippettF · PHI vs OTT | 2.42 | 68% | 43% | 23% | 17:22PP 2:05 | 8.2 | −3% | 2.5 · o +110 / u −130 | DNP |
| Steven StamkosF · NSH vs STL | 2.39 | 67% | 42% | 23% | 18:20PP 3:48 | 6.2 | +3% | 2.5 · o +118 / u −135 | 1 |
| Roope HintzF · DAL @ CHI | 2.36 | 67% | 41% | 22% | 17:44PP 3:22 | 6.4 | +12% | 2.5 · o +130 / u −155 | 3 |
| Lucas RaymondF · DET vs SJS | 2.36 | 67% | 41% | 22% | 19:30PP 3:35 | 6.3 | +1% | 2.5 · o +135 / u −150 | 2 |
| Patrick KaneF · CHI vs DAL | 2.35 | 67% | 41% | 22% | 20:12PP 4:00 | 6.8 | −8% | 1.5 · o −161 / u +130 | 3 |
| Evan BouchardD · EDM @ UTA | 2.34 | 66% | 41% | 22% | 25:00PP 3:27 | 5.5 | −7% | 2.5 · o −103 / u −115 | 3 |
| Rickard RakellF · PIT @ VGK | 2.33 | 66% | 41% | 21% | 18:53PP 3:10 | 7.4 | −8% | 2.5 · o +145 / u −165 | 2 |
| Clayton KellerF · UTA vs EDM | 2.30 | 65% | 40% | 21% | 17:19PP 3:24 | 7.5 | −5% | 2.5 · o +110 / u −120 | 1 |
| Trevor MooreF · LAK vs BOS | 2.28 | 65% | 39% | 20% | 16:55 | 7.9 | +6% | 2.5 · o +115 / u −137 | 3 |
| Jack RoslovicF · TOR vs NYI | 2.27 | 65% | 39% | 20% | 17:00PP 1:06 | 7.7 | +3% | 1.5 · o −175 / u +152 | 5 |
How the projections work
- 1. How often he shoots
- For each strength state (5-on-5, power play, shorthanded, other), we take the shooter's unblocked attempts per 60 minutes and the share of them that hit the net, from every game in roughly the last 14 months. Recent games count more (the weight halves every 8 months), and both numbers are shrunk toward the forward or defenseman average, so a hot week or a short history barely moves them. Missed shots recorded in a rink whose scorers log more misses than the league are scaled down using our arena scorer factors.
- 2. How much he will play
- Projected 5-on-5 time is a weighted average of his last 10 games, with the latest counting most. Power-play time is his share of his team's recent PP minutes times the PP time we expect tonight: the average of his team's recent PP time and the opponent's recent shorthanded time. The lineup is whoever dressed in the team's last game, or the forecast lineup when our matchup forecast has one.
- 3. Who he will face
- Every skater gets a 5-on-5 shot-suppression rating from a ridge regression on line changes (RAPM-style): unblocked attempts against while he is on the ice, adjusted for his teammates, the opponents and home ice, with every rating pulled toward zero. A shooter's matchup factor averages the opposing skaters' ratings, weighted by the minutes he is expected to share with each. Those minutes come from the matchup forecast (which knows the home coach has last change) when it is available; otherwise from each opponent's projected 5-on-5 time.
- 4. Power play and venue
- Power-play shots are scaled by the opponent's shots allowed per 60 while shorthanded, shrunk toward the league rate. Home teams shoot a little more at 5-on-5; the home and road split comes from the same regression.
- 5. From an average to a probability
- Shots in one game spread out more than a simple Poisson count, because ice time and role move from night to night. We use a negative binomial distribution whose extra spread was fit on last season's out-of-sample projections, then read off P(2+), P(3+) and P(4+) shots.
Last fit Oct 20: 1,534 games, 998 skaters rated.
How accurate is it?
Held-out test: Oct 7, 2025 – Apr 16, 2026
Every game in the test season was projected using only data from before that day, the way the live model works. Lineups were the players who dressed; ice time was projected, not known. Shots on goal are the official count (shootout attempts excluded), arena scorer factors came from the previous season, and the spread of the distribution was fit on the previous season. Lower log-loss is better. The live model scored 1.5332 against 1.5441 for a shots-per-game baseline given the same distribution (mean squared error 1.723 vs 1.757). Defender matchup ratings improved on the team-level adjustment by +0.00026 nats per projection (95% interval +0.00001 to +0.00053, resampling whole games); mean squared error 1.724 → 1.723. The gain also showed up in the tuning season. It is a real but very small effect. Even with perfect knowledge of who played against whom, the gain would be 0.0000: ice time and the shooter's own volume dominate.
| Model | Projections | Log-loss | Mean sq. error | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots per game, last 12 months | 47,230 | 1.5441 | 1.757 | 0.441 |
| Shooter rate × projected ice time | 47,230 | 1.5352 | 1.730 | 0.455 |
| + opponent team 5v5 and penalty kill | 47,230 | 1.5335 | 1.724 | 0.458 |
| + defender ratings by expected matchup (live model) | 47,230 | 1.5332 | 1.723 | 0.458 |
| Hindsight: actual matchups (upper bound, not usable) | 47,230 | 1.5332 | 1.723 | 0.458 |
Show as a table
| Line | Bin | n | Projected | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ SOG | 0–10% | 169 | 7.7% | 9.5% |
| 2+ SOG | 10–20% | 3,633 | 16.6% | 16.2% |
| 2+ SOG | 20–30% | 8,907 | 25.3% | 22.9% |
| 2+ SOG | 30–40% | 9,632 | 34.9% | 32.8% |
| 2+ SOG | 40–50% | 8,016 | 44.8% | 43.5% |
| 2+ SOG | 50–60% | 6,692 | 55.0% | 54.5% |
| 2+ SOG | 60–70% | 5,722 | 64.6% | 64.7% |
| 2+ SOG | 70–80% | 3,375 | 74.5% | 74.8% |
| 2+ SOG | 80–90% | 1,067 | 83.0% | 84.7% |
| 2+ SOG | 90–100% | 17 | 90.9% | 100.0% |
| 3+ SOG | 0–10% | 11,961 | 6.5% | 5.9% |
| 3+ SOG | 10–20% | 13,994 | 14.6% | 13.7% |
| 3+ SOG | 20–30% | 8,264 | 24.6% | 23.8% |
| 3+ SOG | 30–40% | 6,282 | 34.8% | 35.5% |
| 3+ SOG | 40–50% | 3,719 | 44.6% | 44.1% |
| 3+ SOG | 50–60% | 2,071 | 54.7% | 56.7% |
| 3+ SOG | 60–70% | 826 | 63.6% | 66.7% |
| 3+ SOG | 70–80% | 112 | 73.1% | 72.3% |
| 3+ SOG | 80–90% | 1 | 80.2% | 0.0% |
| 4+ SOG | 0–10% | 30,086 | 4.1% | 3.8% |
| 4+ SOG | 10–20% | 9,863 | 14.5% | 14.8% |
| 4+ SOG | 20–30% | 4,442 | 24.3% | 24.4% |
| 4+ SOG | 30–40% | 2,020 | 34.6% | 34.6% |
| 4+ SOG | 40–50% | 695 | 43.7% | 44.7% |
| 4+ SOG | 50–60% | 116 | 53.6% | 57.8% |
| 4+ SOG | 60–70% | 8 | 61.8% | 75.0% |
This season so far
3,616 projections across 106 games through Oct 20: 1.54 expected SOG per skater against 1.54 actual.
Show as a table
| Line | Bin | n | Projected | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ SOG | 0–10% | 22 | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 2+ SOG | 10–20% | 246 | 16.4% | 17.5% |
| 2+ SOG | 20–30% | 677 | 25.3% | 21.7% |
| 2+ SOG | 30–40% | 825 | 34.7% | 35.9% |
| 2+ SOG | 40–50% | 641 | 44.8% | 48.0% |
| 2+ SOG | 50–60% | 523 | 54.7% | 50.9% |
| 2+ SOG | 60–70% | 397 | 65.0% | 63.7% |
| 2+ SOG | 70–80% | 223 | 74.1% | 78.0% |
| 2+ SOG | 80–90% | 62 | 82.2% | 79.0% |
| 3+ SOG | 0–10% | 868 | 6.5% | 6.8% |
| 3+ SOG | 10–20% | 1,181 | 14.3% | 14.2% |
| 3+ SOG | 20–30% | 683 | 24.6% | 24.7% |
| 3+ SOG | 30–40% | 422 | 34.7% | 31.8% |
| 3+ SOG | 40–50% | 290 | 44.5% | 46.9% |
| 3+ SOG | 50–60% | 120 | 54.8% | 55.8% |
| 3+ SOG | 60–70% | 51 | 63.0% | 72.5% |
| 3+ SOG | 70–80% | 1 | 71.1% | 0.0% |
| 4+ SOG | 0–10% | 2,390 | 4.1% | 4.4% |
| 4+ SOG | 10–20% | 709 | 14.1% | 12.7% |
| 4+ SOG | 20–30% | 365 | 24.2% | 23.6% |
| 4+ SOG | 30–40% | 108 | 35.3% | 41.7% |
| 4+ SOG | 40–50% | 43 | 43.1% | 51.2% |
| 4+ SOG | 50–60% | 1 | 51.9% | 0.0% |
FAQ
How are NHL shots on goal projections calculated?
Expected SOG = projected ice time at each strength × the shooter's shrunk shots-per-60 at that strength × a matchup factor. The matchup factor comes from the shot-suppression ratings of the opposing skaters he is expected to face at 5-on-5, and from the opponent's penalty kill on the power play. The probabilities come from a negative binomial distribution fit on last season.
Are these betting picks?
No. These are model projections, not bets. The table shows the sportsbook shots line and best prices from up to five US books for context. Since we started logging our projections against those lines before each game (October 2026), the books have been about as accurate as the model on shots on goal, which is not an edge once the bookmaker margin is paid. A 60% projection still misses four times in ten, and the calibration section shows how the probabilities have held up.
How accurate are the projections?
We test the model the way it is used: for every game of a full held-out season, it only sees data from before that day. The methodology section on this page shows the log-loss against a simple shots-per-game baseline and a calibration chart. When we say 40%, it should happen about 40% of the time.
Is this the same SOG number as the daily projections table?
Yes. Tonight's shots on goal and time on ice in the daily fantasy projections table come from this model, so a skater shows the same expected SOG on both pages. On the first graded nights of the season it beat the provider projection it replaced on squared error, log-loss and correlation with actual shots.
Does the opposing defense pair really matter?
Somewhat, and less than ice time and the shooter's own volume. The page reports how much the matchup factor improves accuracy over a team-level adjustment, and how repeatable the defender ratings are from one half of the games to the other. Most matchup factors land between 0.9 and 1.1.
When do the projections update?
Overnight, after the previous night's games, and again during the day as lineups settle. Players who did not dress in their team's last game are left out until they do, so check confirmed lines before puck drop.
Why is a player I expected missing?
The lineup comes from the team's most recent game (or the matchup forecast when it has one). A player returning from injury or a healthy scratch is not projected until he dresses again.