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Stack Finder: best line and PP1 stacks for Saturday, Dec 5

Every forward line and first power-play unit on the Saturday, Dec 5 slate, ranked by expected goals tonight against the opponent's defense, penalty kill and likely goalie. Top stack: TBL PP1 (Carlson–Kucherov–Guentzel–Point–Hagel) vs OTT.

Data updated:

Stacks with a player who is

Top 10 stacks

  1. #1TBLPP1vs OTT0.67 xG

    John Carlson98%, Nikita Kucherov100%, Jake Guentzel100%, Brayden Point95%, Brandon Hagel100%

    Matchup factors →
  2. #2WPGL1vs VGK0.61 xG

    Mark Scheifele98%, Kyle Connor99%, Cole Perfetti61%

    Matchup factors →
  3. #3PITL1vs NJD0.61 xG

    Sidney Crosby100%, Rickard Rakell82%, Nick Robertson32%

    Matchup factors →
  4. #4DALPP1vs VAN0.60 xG

    Mikko Rantanen99%, Roope Hintz83%, Jason Robertson100%, Miro Heiskanen99%, Wyatt Johnston100%

    Matchup factors →
  5. #5CARL1vs TOR0.59 xG

    Taylor Hall25%, Logan Stankoven65%, Jackson Blake69%

    Matchup factors →
  6. #6LAKL1vs UTA0.57 xG

    Adrian Kempe97%, Artemi Panarin97%, Quinton Byfield85%

    Matchup factors →
  7. #7PITL2vs NJD0.57 xG

    Evgeni Malkin86%, Tommy Novak32%, Egor Chinakhov50%

    Matchup factors →
  8. #8UTAL1vs LAK0.57 xG

    Vincent Trocheck87%, Nick Schmaltz95%, Clayton Keller99%

    Matchup factors →
  9. #9FLAL1vs MTL0.56 xG

    Carter Verhaeghe70%, Sam Bennett82%, Matthew Tkachuk99%

    Matchup factors →
  10. #10VGKL3vs WPG0.55 xG

    Tomas Hertl82%, Victor Olofsson17%, Trevor Connelly32%

    Matchup factors →

By game

DET @ BOS

FLA @ MTL

CBJ @ NSH

NJD @ PIT

WSH @ CGY

TBL @ OTT

COL @ NYR

TOR @ CAR

WPG @ VGK

PHI @ MIN

UTA @ LAK

DAL @ VAN

How it works

  1. Lines and PP1 come from each team's last three games of shift data: the forward trio with the most 5-on-5 time together, and the power-play five with the most time together.
  2. Unit strength is expected goals for per 60 minutes, recent games plus the season, shrunk toward league average so a hot two-game sample does not dominate.
  3. Matchup: the opponent's 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 (for lines) or its penalty-kill rate and shorthanded minutes (for PP1), relative to the league.
  4. Goalie: the likely opposing starter from our goalie start model, weighted by probability, with his save % shrunk toward league average; shot-class save % when available.
  5. Stack score = rate × minutes × P(unit intact) × matchup × goalie, in expected goals for tonight, so lines and power plays rank on one scale.

Methodology: How we detect lines · Expected goals · Goalie shot classes · Goalie start model

Frequently asked questions

What is a stack in fantasy hockey?

A stack is a group of teammates who play together, usually a forward line or the first power-play unit, so one goal pays several of your players at once. It is the main strategy in daily fantasy hockey.

How are stacks ranked?

Each unit gets an expected-goals number for tonight: how many chances it creates per 60 minutes (recent games plus season, shrunk toward league average), how many minutes it plays, how likely it is to stay together, how leaky the opponent is at 5-on-5 or shorthanded, and how good the likely opposing goalie is.

Where do the lines come from?

From the NHL shift charts of each team's last three games: the three forwards who share the most 5-on-5 ice time form a line, and the five skaters with the most power-play time together form PP1.

Why does it say "shot-based"?

While a season is being reprocessed with our expected-goals model, unit rates fall back to shots on goal times a league-average 0.075 xG per shot. The ranking logic is the same.