Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W11Robert TonyanTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)0.11.1+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Ian ThomasTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)0.93.0+2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Dalton SchultzTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)8.911.1+2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Tanner HudsonTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)3.55.2+1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Durham SmytheTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.31.8+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Noah FantTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)6.16.6+0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Cole KmetTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)4.99.5+4.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Tommy TrembleTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)3.46.4+3.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W11John FitzPatrickTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)0.91.5+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Chig OkonkwoTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)6.48.6+2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Josh WhyleTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.27.2+6.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Brock BowersTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)13.514.2+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Ja'Tavion SandersTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)4.56.2+1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Colson YankoffTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.11.4+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Colston LovelandTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)6.57.0+0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Mitchell EvansTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)1.74.8+3.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Gunnar HelmTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)4.46.9+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Johnny MundtTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)2.53.1+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W10David NjokuTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)8.710.1+1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Dalton SchultzTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)8.218.3+10.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Dawson KnoxTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)4.86.7+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Tucker FiskTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.91.7+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Trey McBrideTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)15.127.7+12.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Charlie KolarTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)2.33.3+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Cade OttonTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)8.717.2+8.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Elijah HigginsTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)2.63.9+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Theo JohnsonTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)8.414.5+6.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Ben SinnottTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)0.67.4+6.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Colston LovelandTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)7.09.5+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Jackson HawesTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)2.99.6+6.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Travis KelceTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)11.112.6+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Ian ThomasTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)1.11.9+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Mark AndrewsTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)10.916.6+5.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Greg DulcichTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)0.69.9+9.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Tucker FiskTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)0.72.2+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Isaiah LikelyTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)4.79.0+4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Charlie KolarTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)1.910.3+8.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Elijah HigginsTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)2.46.0+3.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Luke MusgraveTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)2.16.4+4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Brock BowersTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)10.043.3+33.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Theo JohnsonTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)9.311.7+2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Oronde Gadsden IITE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)10.911.8+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W8David NjokuTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)6.913.7+6.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Dallas GoedertTE PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)13.717.8+4.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Juwan JohnsonTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0)8.610.3+1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Kyle PittsTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)10.514.9+4.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Jackson HawesTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)1.73.5+1.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Ben YurosekTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)0.11.5+1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)8.918.4+9.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Austin HooperTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)4.09.1+5.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Juwan JohnsonTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)7.112.9+5.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Colby ParkinsonTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)3.47.7+4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Kyle PittsTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)9.113.2+4.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Cade OttonTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)9.213.5+4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Tyler WarrenTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)13.016.9+3.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Mitchell EvansTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)2.24.4+2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Gunnar HelmTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)4.27.6+3.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Terrance FergusonTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)1.010.1+9.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Elijah ArroyoTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)3.96.2+2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Darren WallerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)8.19.2+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Tyler HigbeeTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)6.314.0+7.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Johnny MundtTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)1.82.4+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Evan EngramTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)7.59.9+2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Hunter LongTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)2.83.9+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Tommy TrembleTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)5.97.9+2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Chig OkonkwoTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)6.610.6+4.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Cade OttonTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)8.110.1+2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Julian HillTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)3.56.1+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Nate AdkinsTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)1.910.3+8.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W6David Martin-RobinsonTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)0.37.1+6.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Mitchell EvansTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.43.1+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Oronde Gadsden IITE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)5.711.8+6.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Evan EngramTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)6.913.3+6.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Tyler ConklinTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0)3.25.0+1.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Dalton SchultzTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)8.711.0+2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Harrison BryantTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)0.61.5+0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)0.51.3+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Jeremy RuckertTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)2.46.8+4.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Jake FergusonTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)12.023.9+11.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Charlie KolarTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)1.32.0+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Cade OttonTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)6.312.1+5.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Dalton KincaidTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)8.216.8+8.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Brenden BatesTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)0.34.3+4.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Tyler WarrenTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)13.414.4+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Mason TaylorTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)8.517.7+9.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Darren WallerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)7.017.7+10.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Hunter HenryTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)11.111.9+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Kyle PittsTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0)7.818.0+10.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Julian HillTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)1.62.9+1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Juwan JohnsonTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)9.211.1+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Jack StollTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)0.310.1+9.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W18Chris ManhertzTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI)0.42.6+2.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W18Nick VannettTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU)2.44.6+2.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W18Jonnu SmithTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ)11.218.6+7.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W18Tyler ConklinTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA)6.59.6+3.1✅Backtest ·
2024 W18Mark AndrewsTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE)11.915.4+3.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W18Foster MoreauTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB)5.77.1+1.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W18Noah FantTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR)7.517.3+9.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W18Juwan JohnsonTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB)6.014.0+8.0✅Backtest ·
2024 W18Kenny YeboahTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA)1.24.0+2.8✅Backtest ·

NewerPage 2 of 4 · 382 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse