Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W14Christian WatsonWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)12.624.9+12.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)19.428.1+8.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Jayden ReedWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)5.49.3+3.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)2.310.4+8.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Davante AdamsWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)17.221.8+4.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Courtland SuttonWR DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3)12.817.2+4.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Jakobi MeyersWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)11.121.3+10.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W13David SillsWR ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)3.99.5+5.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Marquise BrownWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)7.810.0+2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W13A.J. BrownWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)15.535.2+19.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Deven ThompkinsWR ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.24.8+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W13John Metchie IIIWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)5.25.7+0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Xavier SmithWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)2.711.2+8.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Kayshon BoutteWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)8.413.5+5.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Rashee RiceWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)17.829.4+11.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Devaughn VeleWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)5.923.3+17.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Mason TiptonWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)2.44.9+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)11.312.9+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Adonai MitchellWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)5.924.2+18.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Kyle WilliamsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)2.210.3+8.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Pat BryantWR DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3)5.17.2+2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Davante AdamsWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)17.023.2+6.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Kalif RaymondWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)4.75.7+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Jakobi MeyersWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)13.515.0+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Ashton DulinWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)1.65.8+4.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W12A.J. BrownWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)14.725.0+10.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Michael PittmanWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)12.913.7+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)23.029.9+6.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Parker WashingtonWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)10.818.1+7.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Devaughn VeleWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)4.46.7+2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Mason TiptonWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.46.3+4.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Jordan WhittingtonWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)3.84.7+0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Darius CooperWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)0.42.7+2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Konata MumpfieldWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)1.24.5+3.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Stefon DiggsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)16.919.5+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Tyler LockettWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)5.76.3+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)16.220.7+4.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Tee HigginsWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)13.715.3+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Tre TuckerWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)10.614.7+4.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Brycen TremayneWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.93.7+1.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Cedric TillmanWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)5.78.2+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Xavier LegetteWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)6.918.3+11.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Jalen CokerWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)5.311.2+5.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Malachi CorleyWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)1.32.9+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Tetairoa McMillanWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)11.833.0+21.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Pat BryantWR DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)3.613.2+9.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Tyler LockettWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)4.39.4+5.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Kalif RaymondWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)3.89.9+6.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Cooper KuppWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)8.59.4+0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Greg DortchWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)3.76.2+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Darius SlaytonWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)9.012.9+3.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Jerry JeudyWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)11.919.8+7.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Nico CollinsWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)12.222.6+10.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Jaylen WaddleWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)14.219.4+5.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Jameson WilliamsWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)11.623.9+12.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Alec PierceWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)12.918.4+5.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Tyrell ShaversWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)2.53.4+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Roman WilsonWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)3.011.5+8.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)11.714.3+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Malik WashingtonWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)7.49.3+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Keon ColemanWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)11.113.6+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Malachi CorleyWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.43.2+1.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Jayden HigginsWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)3.915.2+11.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Jaylin NoelWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)4.07.5+3.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Marquise BrownWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)8.49.3+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Michael PittmanWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)14.420.5+6.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Jauan JenningsWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)11.614.1+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Tee HigginsWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)12.333.1+20.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Tim JonesWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)1.12.5+1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Nico CollinsWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)13.214.5+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Rashid ShaheedWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)9.611.8+2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Alec PierceWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)12.217.5+5.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Calvin Austin IIIWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)10.010.6+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Skyy MooreWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)1.23.1+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Quentin JohnstonWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)11.615.3+3.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Michael WilsonWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)8.09.1+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Parker WashingtonWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)9.817.0+7.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Andrei IosivasWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)5.718.0+12.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Mitchell TinsleyWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)1.03.7+2.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Josh DownsWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)11.117.7+6.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Rashee RiceWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)16.418.6+2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)11.622.6+11.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Tre HarrisWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)3.23.8+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Mack HollinsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)5.315.9+10.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Braxton BerriosWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)4.38.8+4.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Michael PittmanWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)14.823.5+8.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Jaylen WaddleWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)13.520.9+7.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Jahan DotsonWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)6.611.0+4.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Kayshon BoutteWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)9.316.5+7.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Xavier HutchinsonWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)8.717.9+9.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Jared WayneWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.74.0+2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Josh DownsWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)11.012.9+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Troy FranklinWR DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)11.526.9+15.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Malik WashingtonWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)7.313.6+6.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Jayden HigginsWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)6.113.4+7.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Pat BryantWR DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.812.0+9.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Jaylin NoelWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)7.411.3+3.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Chimere DikeWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)6.616.4+9.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Keenan AllenWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)14.428.9+14.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Davante AdamsWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)23.726.5+2.8✅Backtest ·

NewerPage 2 of 6 · 505 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse