Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Robbie OuztsRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jack BechWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 4.4 | 0.0 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.4) | 14.3 | 4.3 | −10.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Philip RiversQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 15.1 | 7.8 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Aaron RodgersQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 12.1 | 7.3 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Josh JohnsonQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 11.9 | 8.9 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 20.0 | 12.8 | −7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 12.7 | 9.1 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Keenan AllenWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 9.4 | 2.7 | −6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Geno SmithQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.6) | 12.6 | 7.1 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 17.8 | 2.1 | −15.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tim PatrickWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Anthony FirkserTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Eric SaubertTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 4.9 | 3.8 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | 4.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 16.6 | 8.0 | −8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ian ThomasTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 9.3 | 4.9 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | 0.1 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 14.4 | 1.7 | −12.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 7.7 | 6.7 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 14.8 | 6.8 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Andrew BeckRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.3) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 13.3 | 7.9 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 4.5 | 1.0 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 0.5 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | 1.8 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Noah FantTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 12.6 | 11.3 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 14.1 | 1.3 | −12.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 12.0 | 11.3 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Harrison BryantTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 12.7 | 3.6 | −9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 7.2 | 3.6 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 8.2 | 5.5 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 14.6 | 7.0 | −7.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Devin DuvernayWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 15.4 | 8.9 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 13.9 | 9.9 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6) | 21.7 | 20.4 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 11.7 | 0.7 | −11.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | John BatesTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | 1.2 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Zach DavidsonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Luke FarrellTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Khalil HerbertRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | 0.5 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 9.9 | 6.3 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 19.6 | 11.4 | −8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | 1.6 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 6.5 | 3.2 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 14.2 | 1.4 | −12.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 19.1 | 8.7 | −10.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 6.1 | 0.0 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 12.8 | 0.0 | −12.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Treylon BurksWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 5.4 | 2.1 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brian RobinsonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | 3.8 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | 1.2 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 5.8 | 3.1 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 14.0 | 7.7 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tank BigsbyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | 1.9 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 7.8 | 2.0 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 5.2 | 4.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 5.5 | 3.4 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Mitchell TinsleyWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 6.3 | 4.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 10.3 | 5.4 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.1) | 8.2 | 1.1 | −7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 29.5 | 15.7 | −13.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 12.8 | 8.9 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 14.0 | 6.7 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jawhar JordanRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 8.5 | 3.6 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Treyton WelchTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Colson YankoffTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 0.2 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 4.1 | 0.0 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.3) | 4.1 | 3.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jared WileyTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 12.4 | 5.7 | −6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 5.8 | 1.5 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tahj WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 11.5 | 7.9 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 10.5 | 4.1 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Mitchell EvansTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 2.5 | 1.6 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 9.3 | 7.7 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Keleki LatuTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse