Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W8Justin WatsonWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)5.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Irv SmithTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Diontae JohnsonWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)6.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Josh OliverTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)2.50.0−2.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Trenton IrwinWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Travis HomerRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Jakob JohnsonRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8J.J. TaylorRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Darrynton EvansRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Stephen SullivanTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Dee EskridgeWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.80.0−1.8voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Feleipe FranksTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Britain CoveyWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8James MitchellTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Nick MuseTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Kendric PryorWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Raheem BlackshearRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Lucas KrullTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Erik EzukanmaWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Evan HullRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8E.J. JenkinsTE PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Grant DuBoseWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Kendre MillerRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Charlie JonesWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Jordan MimsRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Ben SimsTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Tank DellWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)13.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Johnny WilsonWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Jonathon BrooksRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Cade StoverTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Audric EstiméRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Jha'Quan JacksonWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Brenden BatesTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Treyton WelchTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Dallin HolkerTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Ainias SmithWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)3.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Devontez WalkerWR BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Jermaine BurtonWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Javon BakerWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Tahj WashingtonWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Ja'Lynn PolkWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Michael Penix Jr.QB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3)17.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8LaJohntay WesterWR BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8DJ GiddensRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Moliki MatavaoTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Ulysses Bentley IVRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Efton Chism IIIWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Cordarrelle PattersonRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jordan MatthewsTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Mike EvansWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4)15.40.0−15.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jamison CrowderWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)6.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Chris ConleyWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7C.J. UzomahTE PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Tyreek HillWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)10.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Trent TaylorWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Noah BrownWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)10.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Austin EkelerRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)12.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jamaal WilliamsRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7River CracraftWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)4.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Russell GageWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7DJ CharkWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Khari BlasingameRB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Cody ThompsonWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Joseph FortsonTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Mitchell WilcoxTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7JaMycal HastyRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jonathan WardRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Tyler MabryTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Marquez CallawayWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Brandon AiyukWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)12.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7AJ DillonRB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)4.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7K.J. OsbornWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)3.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3)3.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jalen ReagorWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Stephen SullivanTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Kenny YeboahTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Dez FitzpatrickWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Feleipe FranksTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Khalil HerbertRB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Avery WilliamsRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Trey SermonRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Dameon PierceRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Teagan QuitorianoTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7James MitchellTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Ko KieftTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Stone SmarttTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Tay MartinWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Ronnie RiversRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)6.30.0−6.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Peyton HendershotTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Aaron ShampklinRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Treylon BurksWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)4.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Tyrion Davis-PriceRB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Skyy MooreWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)0.92.5+1.6voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Erik EzukanmaWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 11 of 14 · 1,335 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse