Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W6 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 5.7 | 0.0 | −5.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | D.J. MontgomeryWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Devine OzigboRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Trenton IrwinWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 5.0 | 0.0 | −5.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | David SillsWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Stanley MorganWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Matt SokolTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Malik TaylorWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Andy IsabellaWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Juwann WinfreeWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jakob JohnsonRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Giovanni RicciTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Noah TogiaiTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Easop WinstonWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Mason KinseyWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dalton KeeneTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Devin DuvernayWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Anthony McFarlandRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | K.J. OsbornWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Albert OkwuegbunamTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Deon JacksonRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Gary BrightwellRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Josh PedersonTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Hunter KampmoyerTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Feleipe FranksTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kene NwangwuRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chris EvansRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jacob HarrisWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Michael BandyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Amari RodgersWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tre' McKittyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dareke YoungWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Bam KnightRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 14.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kyle PhilipsWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | James MitchellTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ethan FerneaWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jashaun CorbinRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kwamie Lassiter IIWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Raheem BlackshearRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Rod WilliamsTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tay MartinWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Velus Jones Jr.RB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyrion Davis-PriceRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyquan ThorntonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Bryce Ford-WheatonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brady RussellRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ben VanSumerenRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jason BrownleeWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Colton DowellWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ronnie BellWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Elijah CooksWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Elijah DotsonRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Shedrick JacksonWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | SaRodorick Thompson Jr.RB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jake HaenerQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 11.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dante MillerRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jermaine BurtonWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Javon BakerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Malachi CorleyWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brandon BoldenRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Willie SneadWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Damien WilliamsRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Logan ThomasTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 6.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jerick McKinnonRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Darren WallerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Blake BellTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Melvin GordonRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tyler KroftTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Dwayne WashingtonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jonathan WilliamsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 18.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse