Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W5 | Alex ArmahRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Matt BreidaRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jamal AgnewWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | David WellsTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Khari BlasingameRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Deonte HartyWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Zach GentryTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 11.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Qadree OllisonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tyree JacksonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Matt SokolTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jesper HorstedTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Miles BoykinWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Derrick GoreRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jakob JohnsonRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 4.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Lawrence CagerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Dalton KeeneTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | La'Mical PerineRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Anthony McFarlandRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | DeeJay DallasRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Deon JacksonRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Gary BrightwellRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Khalil HerbertRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.3 | 0.0 | −4.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jacob HarrisWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cole TurnerTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Samori ToureWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 14.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Greg DulcichTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Keaontay IngramRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Skylar ThompsonQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 11.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 5.8 | 1.9 | −4.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jashaun CorbinRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 7.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tyreik McAllisterRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Rod WilliamsTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cole FotheringhamTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Elijah CooksWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Malik CunninghamWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jacob CowingWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Audric EstiméRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | British BrooksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Keith SmithRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 6.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Blake BellTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Robbie ChosenWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jonathan WilliamsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Darrell DanielsTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Alex ArmahRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Anthony FirkserTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 14.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | River CracraftWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jason CabindaRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Kevin RaderTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Richie JamesWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Nick BawdenRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Godwin IgwebuikeRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Nick ChubbRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Devine OzigboRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Trevon WescoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Qadree OllisonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 9.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Miles BoykinWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Derrick GoreRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Trishton JacksonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Salvon AhmedRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse