Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W13 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalen McMillanWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 6.1 | 4.5 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 10.0 | 10.4 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 14.5 | 20.7 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 10.3 | 4.5 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Adam ThielenWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 9.6 | 8.7 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Willie SneadWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | DeVante ParkerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 7.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 5.0 | 0.0 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ty MontgomeryWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Phillip DorsettWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kendrick BourneWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.2 | 6.0 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Isaiah McKenzieWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | David MooreWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 4.8 | 20.1 | +15.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 8.8 | 13.1 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Byron PringleWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 15.1 | 29.7 | +14.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | D.J. MontgomeryWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Olamide ZaccheausWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 4.4 | 1.8 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Deonte HartyWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Diontae JohnsonWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 6.2 | 0.0 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | David SillsWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 6.6 | 2.4 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 9.2 | 0.0 | −9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Juwann WinfreeWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 12.6 | 21.2 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 10.4 | 3.1 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dan ChisenaWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 11.9 | 15.6 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 11.1 | 9.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 9.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Mike StrachanWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 10.1 | 12.3 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dyami BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.9 | 5.6 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.4 | 2.5 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Michael BandyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Bo MeltonWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.9 | 0.5 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Samori ToureWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ethan FerneaWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Deven ThompkinsWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.2 | 4.3 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 8.6 | 4.9 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 10.2 | 8.4 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tyquan ThorntonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 10.9 | 9.7 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 8.6 | 0.4 | −8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 6.1 | 3.5 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Malik HeathWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.6 | 9.5 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Bryce Ford-WheatonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 7.7 | 1.6 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 8.1 | 11.3 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ronnie BellWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brycen TremayneWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Malik CunninghamWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 4.2 | 7.2 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 12.4 | 5.7 | −6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 14.8 | 11.2 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 11.0 | 5.6 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 14.4 | 12.4 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Xavier LegetteWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 10.8 | 9.6 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.6 | 1.8 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 8.2 | 14.0 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jalen CokerWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 8.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Javon BakerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 5.8 | 5.1 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 5.5 | 2.0 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.5 | 1.7 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ricky PearsallWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 5.7 | 0.0 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Marquise GoodwinWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.7 | 3.3 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.0 | 3.3 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brandin CooksWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 7.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 9.8 | 7.5 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 12.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Phillip DorsettWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyler LockettWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 11.5 | 3.9 | −7.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Robbie ChosenWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 14.1 | 19.1 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 7.7 | 16.8 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 9.5 | 4.7 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 8.8 | 1.4 | −7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | River CracraftWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Byron PringleWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 14.9 | 14.8 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Braxton BerriosWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Michael GallupWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse