Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W7 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 14.0 | 5.9 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3) | 8.6 | 1.8 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 16.3 | 5.2 | −11.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Andrew BeckRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kene NwangwuRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kenny GainwellRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 11.3 | 3.5 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 6.6 | 1.6 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 19.3 | 8.5 | −10.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 16.7 | 7.2 | −9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 21.7 | 21.2 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tank BigsbyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | 2.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Terrell JenningsRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | 1.8 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | DJ GiddensRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Devin NealRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 0.1 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 12.4 | 4.2 | −8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 8.2 | 0.5 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 3.2 | 1.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 11.4 | 6.7 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | DeeJay DallasRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 19.8 | 16.7 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 11.9 | 8.9 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 7.4 | 0.6 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | 2.3 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Rasheen AliRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ollie Gordon IIRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | 1.2 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Trevor EtienneRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 3.3 | 1.7 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 4.9 | 1.0 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 4.1 | 3.6 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 10.4 | 8.6 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 19.3 | 4.9 | −14.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | 2.1 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 4.5 | 2.9 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | 1.3 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | 0.1 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | DJ GiddensRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | 2.2 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 6.9 | 2.4 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 7.8 | 6.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 7.2 | 4.7 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 7.6 | 5.7 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 12.4 | 5.1 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 19.8 | 17.1 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ollie Gordon IIRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 3.9 | 1.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | LeQuint Allen Jr.RB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | 1.7 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Bhayshul TutenRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 4.4 | 3.2 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 7.8 | 1.4 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 21.6 | 16.1 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.6 | 0.3 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 15.5 | 12.5 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 12.9 | 3.8 | −9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 5.1 | 2.7 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 17.6 | 6.2 | −11.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.3 | 0.2 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 15.3 | 4.3 | −11.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Trey SermonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 4.1 | 1.5 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 12.0 | 10.8 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 2.8 | 1.5 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 16.4 | 0.0 | −16.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 5.9 | 1.1 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 4.1 | 1.0 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 7.3 | 6.8 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 4.9 | 1.6 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 11.1 | 9.1 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 11.6 | 8.6 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rasheen AliRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 6.0 | 3.9 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 2.9 | 0.2 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 15.7 | 11.7 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 4.0 | 3.4 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.6 | 0.5 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 24.1 | 18.9 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 11.1 | 9.8 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jermar JeffersonRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 3.3 | 0.9 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 10.9 | 10.1 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 6.1 | 1.9 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 10.7 | 8.5 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Trey SermonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 4.0 | 2.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 18.3 | 4.4 | −13.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 10.2 | 2.2 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.6 | 0.7 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyrion Davis-PriceRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.9 | 0.7 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 9.8 | 2.9 | −6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 6.4 | 3.3 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.9 | 1.1 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 15.1 | 5.8 | −9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Keilan RobinsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.5 | 3.6 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 4.9 | 0.8 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.9 | 1.2 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mike BooneRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.6 | 0.1 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.6 | 0.4 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 13.9 | 8.0 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse