Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W13Trey SermonRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Connor HeywardRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Ronnie RiversRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Julius ChestnutRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tyrion Davis-PriceRB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Pierre StrongRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Kendre MillerRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)7.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tank BigsbyRB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)4.10.0−4.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jordan MimsRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)5.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jacob SaylorsRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Sione VakiRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Audric EstiméRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Keilan RobinsonRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jacob KibodiRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Cody SchraderRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Terrell JenningsRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Raheim SandersRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Cordarrelle PattersonRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.4)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Samaje PerineRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)3.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12James ConnerRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)13.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Mike BooneRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Craig ReynoldsRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Josh JacobsRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1)16.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Tony JonesRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Patrick TaylorRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)4.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Darrynton EvansRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Joshua KelleyRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Cam AkersRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12DeeJay DallasRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Elijah MitchellRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Jermar JeffersonRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Trey SermonRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.4)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Dameon PierceRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Ty ChandlerRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Brittain BrownRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Raheem BlackshearRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Velus Jones Jr.RB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Zavier ScottRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)3.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Kenny McIntoshRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Jacob SaylorsRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Kendall MiltonRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12George HolaniRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Carson SteeleRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Jonathon BrooksRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Isaac GuerendoRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)3.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Sione VakiRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Keilan RobinsonRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Rasheen AliRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Jacardia WrightRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Kaleb JohnsonRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.4)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Trevor EtienneRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11James ConnerRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)12.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Austin EkelerRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)10.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Joe MixonRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)11.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jeff WilsonRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Gus EdwardsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3)3.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Mike BooneRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Travis HomerRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1)0.9-0.2−1.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W11JaMycal HastyRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Tony JonesRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Patrick TaylorRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)4.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11J.J. TaylorRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Darrynton EvansRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)7.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jaret PattersonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Najee HarrisRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3)4.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Avery WilliamsRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Dameon PierceRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ty ChandlerRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Brittain BrownRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Raheem BlackshearRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.3)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Hassan HaskinsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Zavier ScottRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)4.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Carson SteeleRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jonathon BrooksRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Isaac GuerendoRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)4.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jase McClellanRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11British BrooksRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Terrell JenningsRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jaylen WrightRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)2.50.4−2.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ray DavisRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)3.50.0−3.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Trey BensonRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)7.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Josh WilliamsRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Nate CarterRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Omarion HamptonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3)12.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10James ConnerRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)11.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Joe MixonRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)9.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10D'Onta ForemanRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Jeff WilsonRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Travis HomerRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10JaMycal HastyRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Tony JonesRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10J.J. TaylorRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Darrynton EvansRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)5.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Cam AkersRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 3 of 10 · 908 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse