Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W17 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 15.8 | 23.0 | +7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Samaje PerineRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.3 | 8.0 | +4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 22.7 | 26.6 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 10.8 | 15.9 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.7 | 3.3 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 14.7 | 39.8 | +25.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 5.0 | 5.6 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DeeJay DallasRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.8 | 7.1 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 16.9 | 32.5 | +15.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 11.3 | 12.3 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.9 | 9.8 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Raheem BlackshearRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 0.6 | 1.3 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 18.3 | 19.9 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 21.0 | 24.3 | +3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 6.6 | 10.1 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 3.9 | 8.2 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 8.4 | 21.6 | +13.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 15.9 | 31.0 | +15.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 12.9 | 18.2 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Sione VakiRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.7 | 4.0 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.5 | 5.1 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 16.0 | 18.6 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 9.3 | 17.8 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 4.5 | 17.3 | +12.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 13.1 | 14.9 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 5.4 | 8.4 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 5.0 | 9.0 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 16.4 | 26.3 | +9.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 18.4 | 26.3 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 7.2 | 27.2 | +20.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 3.2 | 4.0 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 5.1 | 10.9 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 14.0 | 19.4 | +5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 18.1 | 24.6 | +6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 13.5 | 15.1 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 6.1 | 12.3 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 6.6 | 10.9 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 16.3 | 23.7 | +7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 17.3 | 20.1 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 3.5 | 9.2 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 5.9 | 13.2 | +7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.7 | 3.4 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.6 | 8.3 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.4 | 3.5 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 4.0 | 4.7 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 18.8 | 21.7 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 13.0 | 21.3 | +8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 13.6 | 24.9 | +11.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 9.2 | 10.4 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 16.9 | 19.0 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 5.4 | 7.8 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 15.3 | 17.9 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 15.3 | 19.0 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.4 | 15.4 | +11.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.7 | 4.9 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 14.7 | 21.0 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jonathon BrooksRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.2 | 7.1 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 12.3 | 27.5 | +15.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.3 | 8.6 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.7 | 12.2 | +10.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 5.2 | 13.7 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 9.9 | 17.5 | +7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 4.1 | 7.1 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Nick ChubbRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 5.5 | 19.0 | +13.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 15.4 | 21.9 | +6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 18.1 | 28.6 | +10.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 8.3 | 15.4 | +7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.1 | 10.7 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.0 | 1.5 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 9.4 | 9.9 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 7.2 | 8.1 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 14.7 | 18.9 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 13.8 | 19.3 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.8 | 2.7 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 2.4 | 3.8 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.6 | 5.5 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.1 | 6.4 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 13.2 | 15.4 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 26.4 | 27.5 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 16.1 | 24.5 | +8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 12.4 | 22.4 | +10.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.0 | 4.8 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 3.7 | 16.0 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Audric EstiméRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.2 | 3.5 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 6.4 | 17.0 | +10.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 2.4 | 12.5 | +10.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.1 | 3.8 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 13.3 | 14.9 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 12.5 | 18.7 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 14.9 | 16.1 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 14.6 | 28.3 | +13.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.5 | 3.2 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 18.1 | 22.6 | +4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 7.1 | 12.6 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 8.3 | 11.4 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.2 | 19.2 | +16.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 5.8 | 9.2 | +3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 15.7 | 20.6 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 15.4 | 26.7 | +11.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 14.9 | 20.2 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse