Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W11David Martin-RobinsonTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)0.40.0−0.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Erick AllTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Carter RunyonTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)0.70.0−0.7voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ben YurosekTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.70.0−0.7voidBacktest ·
2025 W10MyCole PruittTE PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Darren WallerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Eric TomlinsonTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Geoff SwaimTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Pharaoh BrownTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Eric SaubertTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Gerald EverettTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Will DisslyTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Jordan AkinsTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)3.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Hayden HurstTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Irv SmithTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Stephen CarlsonTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Mitchell WilcoxTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Tyler MabryTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Zach DavidsonTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Ko KieftTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Tanner ConnerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Travis VokolekTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Julian HillTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)3.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Brenton StrangeTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)6.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Cade StoverTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Brenden BatesTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Tip ReimanTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Thomas Fidone IITE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Darren WallerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)6.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Eric TomlinsonTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Pharaoh BrownTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Will DisslyTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Tyler ConklinTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Hayden HurstTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Joseph FortsonTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Mitchell WilcoxTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Albert OkwuegbunamTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)5.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Charlie WoernerTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)1.00.0−1.0voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Zach DavidsonTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Feleipe FranksTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jake TongesTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)5.10.0−5.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Teagan QuitorianoTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Nick MuseTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Peyton HendershotTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Daniel BellingerTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Thomas OdukoyaTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Will MalloryTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Travis VokolekTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Josh WhyleTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Brayden WillisTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Ben SimsTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9John ShenkerTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Baylor CuppTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Tip ReimanTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jared WileyTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Carter RunyonTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Marcedes LewisTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Jordan MatthewsTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Darren WallerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)6.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8C.J. UzomahTE PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Geoff SwaimTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Nick VannettTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Gerald EverettTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Jordan AkinsTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)3.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Irv SmithTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Josh OliverTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)2.50.0−2.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Stephen SullivanTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Feleipe FranksTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8James MitchellTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Nick MuseTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Lucas KrullTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8E.J. JenkinsTE PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Ben SimsTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Cade StoverTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Brenden BatesTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Treyton WelchTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Dallin HolkerTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Moliki MatavaoTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jordan MatthewsTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7C.J. UzomahTE PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Joseph FortsonTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Mitchell WilcoxTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Tyler MabryTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Stephen SullivanTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Kenny YeboahTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Feleipe FranksTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Teagan QuitorianoTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7James MitchellTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Ko KieftTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Stone SmarttTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Peyton HendershotTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Thomas OdukoyaTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Will MalloryTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Zack KuntzTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Baylor CuppTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 3 of 8 · 713 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse