Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Quintin MorrisTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.7 | 5.0 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 1.6 | 3.1 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.9 | 2.9 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.9 | 7.7 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 2.6 | 3.6 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Josh WhyleTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.6 | 9.9 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.7 | 5.5 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 3.9 | 9.6 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.3 | 2.9 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.2 | 3.1 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 4.0 | 5.6 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 3.5 | 14.4 | +10.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nick VannettTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 1.8 | 7.8 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 6.1 | 21.7 | +15.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 6.3 | 10.9 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 13.2 | 14.8 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 10.8 | 11.8 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.9 | 6.4 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 9.1 | 11.0 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.2 | 4.4 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 8.0 | 10.9 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.8 | 11.6 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 11.0 | 18.4 | +7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.6 | 8.2 | +7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 5.5 | 9.5 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 10.1 | 13.9 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 13.0 | 18.6 | +5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Pharaoh BrownTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.3 | 2.7 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Eric SaubertTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.1 | 7.2 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 8.0 | 15.5 | +7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 11.1 | 13.8 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Noah FantTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 7.0 | 8.0 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 6.6 | 8.9 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 5.6 | 6.2 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 6.7 | 19.1 | +12.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 7.8 | 11.9 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 8.1 | 10.0 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.3 | 7.9 | +5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 0.6 | 1.6 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 3.6 | 9.3 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 10.9 | 19.8 | +8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.8 | 3.7 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 4.0 | 8.0 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 6.2 | 13.9 | +7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Josh WhyleTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.7 | 14.7 | +12.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 8.1 | 9.3 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 10.8 | 18.1 | +7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Cam GrandyTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.3 | 3.2 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 10.9 | 21.1 | +10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 5.4 | 6.0 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 6.7 | 15.0 | +8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 0.9 | 2.1 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 5.5 | 6.6 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.7 | 6.0 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 5.4 | 7.3 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 6.7 | 10.6 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 9.3 | 13.1 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Michael MayerTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 4.0 | 13.8 | +9.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.1 | 2.0 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 10.7 | 12.5 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.1 | 4.1 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 10.2 | 21.3 | +11.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 6.4 | 7.2 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 10.3 | 12.5 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 4.0 | 6.8 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 6.5 | 10.3 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.9 | 1.5 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 7.0 | 18.8 | +11.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 6.5 | 12.7 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 2.5 | 5.4 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 14.6 | 21.6 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.3 | 2.6 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 8.8 | 13.8 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 2.8 | 4.3 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 10.6 | 15.6 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 0.6 | 1.9 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.5 | 1.3 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.8 | 15.9 | +11.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 9.7 | 20.2 | +10.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Pharaoh BrownTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 0.9 | 3.9 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 3.7 | 6.8 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 8.9 | 18.4 | +9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.5 | 22.6 | +18.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 6.2 | 9.9 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 12.9 | 25.3 | +12.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 5.7 | 14.0 | +8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 2.9 | 4.4 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.4 | 3.9 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.1 | 11.6 | +9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 4.2 | 4.9 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Eric SaubertTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.1 | 1.7 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.2 | 1.5 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 4.2 | 8.0 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.8 | 6.4 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 5.1 | 12.0 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 4.1 | 8.9 | +4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 6.5 | 9.5 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 3.1 | 6.2 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 12.4 | 31.3 | +18.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 13.3 | 20.4 | +7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse