Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W17 | Max BrosmerQB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.6) | 10.9 | 3.6 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Corey KinerRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 2.4 | 0.2 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Konata MumpfieldWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | 3.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Robbie OuztsRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tre HarrisWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 4.1 | 2.5 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 13.5 | 8.2 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Keenan AllenWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 12.1 | 9.4 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 12.6 | 1.6 | −11.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Brandin CooksWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | 1.4 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jacoby BrissettQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 17.6 | 10.6 | −7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Johnny MundtTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kendrick BourneWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 7.3 | 5.7 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 10.0 | 0.2 | −9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 3.5 | 1.6 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 4.4 | 1.4 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 9.8 | 4.4 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Durham SmytheTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 19.8 | 6.9 | −12.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Dante PettisWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Steven SimsWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 13.6 | 8.2 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 11.3 | 1.4 | −9.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 14.4 | 4.8 | −9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | James ProcheWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 18.1 | 16.9 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 12.0 | 7.2 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3) | 14.6 | 9.0 | −5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 6.3 | 3.4 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Van JeffersonWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 5.0 | 4.4 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 23.1 | 9.4 | −13.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Josh PalmerWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 5.1 | 1.2 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 17.2 | 12.0 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 9.9 | 7.4 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 6.8 | 1.8 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 6.6 | 0.0 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 10.3 | 4.9 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 6.0 | 3.5 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | 1.3 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 16.3 | 13.2 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | 0.4 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Brycen TremayneWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 19.1 | 18.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Michael MayerTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0) | 3.6 | 2.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 25.5 | 22.8 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Xavier LegetteWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 7.9 | 2.2 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 12.5 | 7.1 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 10.6 | 1.1 | −9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Rasheen AliRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | 2.2 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 8.0 | 0.0 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 11.4 | 2.4 | −9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 3.7 | 1.4 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 10.3 | 6.0 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 10.6 | 6.0 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jordan WatkinsWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jaxson DartQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 15.8 | 0.0 | −15.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 11.6 | 2.2 | −9.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Adam ThielenWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | 1.7 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Keenan AllenWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 9.7 | 8.6 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 16.3 | 11.1 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 11.0 | 5.6 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 1.2 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Marcus MariotaQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 16.3 | 14.7 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 10.3 | 2.8 | −7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tim PatrickWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 4.4 | 0.0 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 6.6 | 3.8 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 4.3 | 0.0 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 17.7 | 13.1 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 4.9 | 1.2 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.3) | 17.8 | 11.3 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Olamide ZaccheausWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 7.1 | 0.0 | −7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 10.9 | 7.3 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 10.7 | 7.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 6.2 | 1.4 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Devin DuvernayWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected −0.3) | 13.7 | 10.4 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 12.9 | 4.6 | −8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dyami BrownWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 4.5 | -1.6 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Adam PrenticeRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | -0.1 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | 1.1 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 6.1 | 1.8 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Treylon BurksWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 7.0 | 0.0 | −7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kenny PickettQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 7.5 | 1.3 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse