Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W10Josh DownsWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)11.01.3−9.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10De'Von AchaneRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)18.440.5+22.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Elijah HigginsTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)2.63.9+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Payne DurhamTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Zach CharbonnetRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)10.614.3+3.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Johnny WilsonWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10George HolaniRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)2.89.1+6.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Jack WestoverTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Malik NabersWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)12.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Cade StoverTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Jamari ThrashWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.70.0−2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)8.88.1−0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Jase McClellanRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Brenden BatesTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Hayden RucciTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Xavier WeaverWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Ramel KeytonWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10British BrooksRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)0.80.0−0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Jacob KibodiRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Colson YankoffTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)0.10.0−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Cody SchraderRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Tip ReimanTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Blake CorumRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3)5.75.6−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Roman WilsonWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)3.011.5+8.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Ainias SmithWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Devin CulpTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.70.0−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Terrell JenningsRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)4.00.5−3.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W10AJ BarnerTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)6.80.3−6.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Theo JohnsonTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)8.414.5+6.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)11.714.3+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Jaylen WrightRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)2.11.7−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Ray DavisRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)3.70.8−2.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Malik WashingtonWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)7.49.3+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Tahj WashingtonWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)2.30.0−2.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Keon ColemanWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)11.113.6+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Ben SinnottTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)0.67.4+6.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Malachi CorleyWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.43.2+1.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Trey BensonRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)6.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Darius CooperWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Nick KallerupTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Jacardia WrightRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Colston LovelandTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)7.09.5+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Jayden HigginsWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)3.915.2+11.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Jaylin NoelWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)4.07.5+3.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Dylan SampsonRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)5.00.9−4.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Oronde Gadsden IITE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)12.14.3−7.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Jackson HawesTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)2.99.6+6.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Ollie Gordon IIRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)3.3-0.3−3.6voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Thomas Fidone IITE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Kyle MonangaiRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)12.08.8−3.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Dominic LovettWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Gage LarvadainWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.10.0−2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Raheim SandersRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Ke'Shawn WilliamsWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Nate CarterRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)5.21.4−3.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Woody MarksRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)7.816.1+8.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Tory HortonWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)5.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Robbie OuztsRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)0.90.0−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Ricky White IIIWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)8.78.4−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Isaac TeSlaaWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)2.02.1+0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Jaxson DartQB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected −0.3)15.926.3+10.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Dillon GabrielQB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.6)12.120.1+8.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Cam SkatteboRB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)12.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Jack BechWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)2.80.0−2.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W10TreVeyon HendersonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)10.528.0+17.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Elijah ArroyoTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)5.51.5−4.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Quinshon JudkinsRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)13.110.5−2.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Aaron RodgersQB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.3)17.412.1−5.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Joe FlaccoQB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected −0.3)16.930.7+13.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Kirk CousinsQB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3)12.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Keenan AllenWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)13.46.1−7.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Robert WoodsWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Travis KelceTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)11.112.6+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Geno SmithQB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.6)13.726.3+12.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Brandin CooksWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)4.33.6−0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Chris ManhertzTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W9Darren WallerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)6.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Raheem MostertRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)2.82.4−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W9Eric TomlinsonTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Chris ConleyWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Tyler LockettWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)4.20.0−4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Austin HooperTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)4.43.0−1.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Nick VannettTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)0.50.0−0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W9Demarcus RobinsonWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)4.90.0−4.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Carson WentzQB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.3)12.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Laquon TreadwellWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Tyler BoydWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)5.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Hunter HenryTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)9.79.1−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Jacoby BrissettQB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.6)17.224.8+7.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Mo Alie-CoxTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.90.0−1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Zach PascalWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9George KittleTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)9.46.9−2.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Trent TaylorWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Kendrick BourneWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)8.85.4−3.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Pharaoh BrownTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Mike WilliamsWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)3.0––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 21 of 67 · 6,619 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse