Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W9 | Robert TonyanTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 6.0 | 1.2 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected −0.6) | 22.6 | 10.5 | −12.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 5.7 | 0.0 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 12.4 | 12.5 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tyler ConklinTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Equanimeous St. BrownWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ian ThomasTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 1.9 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Justin WatsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Russell GageWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Braxton BerriosWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 10.9 | 16.6 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Christian KirkWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 7.2 | 6.6 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 23.6 | 25.6 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Dante PettisWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Malik TurnerWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Steven SimsWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 11.8 | 6.3 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.6) | 19.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 8.6 | 9.1 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Trayveon WilliamsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Trenton IrwinWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 4.4 | 0.9 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Joseph FortsonTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 15.1 | 2.6 | −12.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 8.4 | 9.3 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 17.9 | 20.0 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Daniel JonesQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.8) | 20.0 | 14.1 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tyler HuntleyQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 20.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | James ProcheWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Mason KinseyWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 14.4 | 20.5 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 11.6 | 14.1 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 10.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 7.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Josiah DeguaraTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.6) | 21.6 | 27.7 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 4.4 | 0.5 | −3.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 12.3 | 33.1 | +20.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Van JeffersonWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 5.0 | 3.1 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Albert OkwuegbunamTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 5.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 2.5 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 13.2 | 14.5 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Dyami BrownWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 9.4 | 5.9 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Dez FitzpatrickWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Zach DavidsonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Simi FehokoWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jaret PattersonRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 3.5 | 4.4 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Feleipe FranksTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Luke FarrellTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | 1.9 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 22.0 | 17.1 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 10.9 | 7.8 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected −0.3) | 17.1 | 21.2 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Mac JonesQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.8) | 18.2 | 15.8 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 5.1 | 0.0 | −5.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Justyn RossWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 14.2 | 8.7 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Greg DulcichTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 9.9 | +9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Dameon PierceRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Montrell WashingtonWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Teagan QuitorianoTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 9.6 | 11.8 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | 2.2 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 12.2 | 17.5 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 16.1 | 16.5 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 7.2 | 3.0 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 10.0 | 10.6 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse