Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W9Tre HarrisWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)3.23.8+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Jack BechWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9TreVeyon HendersonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)13.412.7−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Tyler ShoughQB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.3)10.29.2−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Marcedes LewisTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Joe FlaccoQB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3)18.124.3+6.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Andy DaltonQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected −0.3)13.31.1−12.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Robert WoodsWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)5.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8DeAndre HopkinsWR BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)4.92.4−2.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Jordan MatthewsTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Nelson AgholorWR BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)4.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Stefon DiggsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)12.210.4−1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Darren WallerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)6.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Ameer AbdullahRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)6.11.8−4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W8C.J. UzomahTE PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Geoff SwaimTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Nick VannettTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Alex EricksonWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Carson WentzQB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.3)14.17.8−6.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Laquon TreadwellWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Tyler BoydWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)6.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Tyreek HillWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)12.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Mack HollinsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)5.315.9+10.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Cooper RushQB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected −0.6)13.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Dare OgunbowaleRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)2.22.7+0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W8Evan EngramTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)8.57.6−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W8David NjokuTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)6.913.7+6.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Gerald EverettTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Joe MixonRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)12.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Alvin KamaraRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)14.26.5−7.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Jamaal WilliamsRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Jeff WilsonRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Mike BooneRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Courtland SuttonWR DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)15.910.7−5.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Dallas GoedertTE PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)13.717.8+4.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Anthony MillerWR BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Jordan AkinsTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)3.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Dalton SchultzTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)11.84.4−7.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Justin WatsonWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)5.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)3.01.2−1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Braxton BerriosWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)4.38.8+4.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Trent SherfieldWR DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.30.0−1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Nick ChubbRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)8.68.9+0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W8Durham SmytheTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Irv SmithTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Foster MoreauTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0)2.60.0−2.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Ashton DulinWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.30.2−2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Stephen CarlsonTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W8Alec IngoldRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)2.11.0−1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Diontae JohnsonWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)6.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8T.J. HockensonTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)8.94.6−4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Josh OliverTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)2.50.0−2.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Trenton IrwinWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Ty JohnsonRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)4.70.6−4.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Travis HomerRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Dawson KnoxTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)6.12.5−3.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Daniel JonesQB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.3)21.223.2+2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Jakob JohnsonRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Juwan JohnsonTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0)8.610.3+1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W8J.J. TaylorRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8James ProcheWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)1.90.0−1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Rico DowdleRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)9.35.4−3.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Mason KinseyWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)0.90.0−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)3.72.8−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Reggie GilliamRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Tua TagovailoaQB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3)11.924.2+12.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Jonathan TaylorRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)25.237.4+12.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Harrison BryantTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.00.0−1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Michael PittmanWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)14.823.5+8.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W8D'Andre SwiftRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)14.615.1+0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W8Darrynton EvansRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Jalen HurtsQB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.6)20.525.4+4.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Tee HigginsWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)13.311.4−1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Van JeffersonWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)5.01.6−3.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Adam TrautmanTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)3.20.0−3.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Charlie WoernerTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Stephen SullivanTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Rashod BatemanWR BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)7.87.1−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Chuba HubbardRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)11.39.4−1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Jaylen WaddleWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)13.520.9+7.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Dee EskridgeWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.80.0−1.8voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Tylan WallaceWR BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)1.91.6−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W8Jack StollTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Feleipe FranksTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Kylen GransonTE PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)0.90.0−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Ja'Marr ChaseWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)21.421.1−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W8DeVonta SmithWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)24.414.4−10.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Kyle PittsTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)10.514.9+4.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Tommy TrembleTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)4.51.4−3.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Grant CalcaterraTE PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)3.20.0−3.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Tyler GoodsonRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.30.2−2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Britain CoveyWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8James CookRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)17.433.6+16.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Greg DulcichTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)0.80.0−0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Teagan QuitorianoTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W8James MitchellTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Nick MuseTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Tanner ConnerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)3.12.6−0.5❌Backtest ·

NewerPage 24 of 67 · 6,619 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse