Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W8 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Raheem BlackshearRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | John Metchie IIIWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 13.0 | 8.9 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 6.6 | 11.0 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Evan HullRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Xavier GipsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | 1.3 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Cameron LatuTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 9.3 | 16.5 | +7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 8.7 | 17.9 | +9.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 6.1 | 0.0 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 5.9 | 5.7 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jared WayneWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | 4.0 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ben SimsTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Mitchell TinsleyWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 8.6 | 3.3 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 9.3 | 1.8 | −7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Tank DellWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 13.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 11.0 | 12.9 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 16.3 | 20.1 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 14.9 | 14.1 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.6) | 16.5 | 21.7 | +5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jonathon BrooksRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 4.4 | 4.9 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Audric EstiméRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jha'Quan JacksonWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Treyton WelchTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | British BrooksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.8) | 21.2 | 23.8 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jermaine BurtonWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 18.4 | 26.3 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Javon BakerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 11.5 | 26.9 | +15.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 3.8 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | 1.6 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 7.3 | 13.6 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Tahj WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | 0.0 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Michael Penix Jr.QB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 17.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Darius CooperWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | LaJohntay WesterWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 6.9 | 6.8 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jayden HigginsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 6.1 | 13.4 | +7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Kyle WilliamsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Pat BryantWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | 12.0 | +9.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jaylin NoelWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 7.4 | 11.3 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Elic AyomanorWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 11.5 | 9.2 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | DJ GiddensRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Mitchell EvansTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | 3.5 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ollie Gordon IIRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | 13.6 | +10.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Devin NealRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 4.1 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 7.8 | 2.4 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Moliki MatavaoTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ulysses Bentley IVRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ben YurosekTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 0.1 | 1.5 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Efton Chism IIIWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 9.7 | 15.1 | +5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Trevor EtienneRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 1.3 | 1.6 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 8.9 | 18.4 | +9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Cam WardQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.3) | 10.4 | 12.8 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Dillon GabrielQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3) | 10.3 | 11.5 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Chimere DikeWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 6.6 | 16.4 | +9.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 17.1 | 27.4 | +10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 12.3 | 12.7 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Keenan AllenWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 14.4 | 28.9 | +14.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 12.3 | 8.4 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 23.7 | 26.5 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Mike EvansWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4) | 15.4 | 0.0 | −15.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 6.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | 3.7 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Sterling ShepardWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4) | 11.0 | 7.5 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 4.0 | 9.1 | +5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Chris MooreWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 12.7 | 7.9 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Robbie ChosenWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | 7.6 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Demarcus RobinsonWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 6.0 | 0.0 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 10.0 | 7.3 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse