Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W7Quentin JohnstonWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)14.011.0−3.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Kendre MillerRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)5.10.7−4.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Tank BigsbyRB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1)4.82.0−2.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Cameron LatuTE PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.10.0−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W7Derius DavisWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)1.70.0−1.7voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)4.07.2+3.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Jordan MimsRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)3.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Rakim JarrettWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Ryan MillerWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4)2.62.4−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W7Payne DurhamTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)1.50.0−1.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Trey PalmerWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Davis AllenTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)2.71.4−1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Bryce YoungQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3)13.510.5−2.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Jack WestoverTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W7Baylor CuppTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Carson SteeleRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Luke McCaffreyWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)7.60.0−7.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Ja'Tavion SandersTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)4.60.0−4.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Jacob CowingWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Audric EstiméRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jase McClellanRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Brenden RiceWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Treyton WelchTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Kameron JohnsonWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4)2.60.0−2.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Dallin HolkerTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7David Martin-RobinsonTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.70.0−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Jaylen JohnsonWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Colson YankoffTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W7Cody SchraderRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Blake CorumRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)4.55.3+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Will ShipleyRB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1)2.11.7−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W7Jordan WhittingtonWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)6.62.9−3.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Devin CulpTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)1.20.0−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Terrell JenningsRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.91.8−1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W7AJ BarnerTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)7.11.9−5.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Braelon AllenRB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)4.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Isaiah DavisRB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)4.75.2+0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Jared WileyTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jalen McMillanWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4)9.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Malik WashingtonWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)6.38.0+1.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Tahj WashingtonWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jayden DanielsQB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.8)22.417.7−4.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Ben SinnottTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)0.80.0−0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Ladd McConkeyWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)15.015.7+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Brashard SmithRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3)4.013.1+9.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Tyler WarrenTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)13.016.9+3.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Emeka EgbukaWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4)18.39.8−8.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Kaleb JohnsonRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jaylin LaneWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)8.99.0+0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W7DJ GiddensRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)2.10.0−2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W7KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Mitchell EvansTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)2.24.4+2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Devin NealRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)1.10.1−1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Tez JohnsonWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4)6.115.8+9.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)12.44.2−8.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Moliki MatavaoTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Ja'Corey BrooksWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Ulysses Bentley IVRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Nate CarterRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Gunnar HelmTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)4.27.6+3.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Konata MumpfieldWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)1.37.5+6.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Cam WardQB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3)11.110.2−0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Tre HarrisWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)3.54.3+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W7TreVeyon HendersonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)8.20.5−7.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Mason TaylorTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)10.66.1−4.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Terrance FergusonTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)1.010.1+9.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Elijah ArroyoTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)3.96.2+2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Aaron RodgersQB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3)14.317.5+3.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Marcedes LewisTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Matthew StaffordQB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected −0.3)18.29.3−8.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Jordan MatthewsTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Davante AdamsWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)16.77.9−8.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Chris ManhertzTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W6Amari CooperWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)5.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Darren WallerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)8.19.2+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Eric TomlinsonTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Chris ConleyWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Derrick HenryRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)13.514.0+0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W6Demarcus RobinsonWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)7.16.4−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Tyler HigbeeTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)6.314.0+7.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Jacoby BrissettQB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.8)12.020.7+8.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Johnny MundtTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)1.82.4+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Zach PascalWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Curtis SamuelWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)4.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Trent TaylorWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Kendrick BourneWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)9.919.2+9.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Tim PatrickWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)2.39.6+7.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Samaje PerineRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)2.65.2+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Mike WilliamsWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)5.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)7.48.7+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Patrick MahomesQB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.6)21.131.5+10.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Evan EngramTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)7.59.9+2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Zay JonesWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4)2.912.9+10.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Cooper KuppWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)12.012.0+0.0pushBacktest ·
2025 W6Jeff WilsonRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Will DisslyTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)6.03.8−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Gus EdwardsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)5.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Mike BooneRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Tyler ConklinTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)3.30.0−3.3voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 27 of 67 · 6,619 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse