Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W17 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.8 | 3.5 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 2.9 | 0.2 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 18.8 | 25.8 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.5 | 1.7 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 15.7 | 11.7 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tim PatrickWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 7.1 | 2.0 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | John RossWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 6.2 | 5.3 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.8 | 3.8 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 17.3 | 26.0 | +8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 9.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.2 | 2.9 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 16.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.5 | 4.9 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 4.0 | 3.4 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.6 | 0.5 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 7.3 | 4.1 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jason CabindaRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kevin RaderTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 6.1 | 21.7 | +15.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 6.7 | 0.0 | −6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Equanimeous St. BrownWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Richie JamesWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Keith KirkwoodWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 7.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 6.3 | 10.9 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ian ThomasTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Justin WatsonWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 3.4 | 14.0 | +10.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 8.2 | 3.7 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Boston ScottRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.7 | 4.7 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 6.7 | 1.9 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | David WellsTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashaad PennyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 13.2 | 14.8 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mason RudolphQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 12.3 | 12.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nick ChubbRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 22.5 | 29.4 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 24.1 | 18.9 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 0.9 | 1.9 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 20.5 | 34.6 | +14.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 21.9 | 23.0 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dante PettisWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 4.8 | 5.7 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 18.5 | 24.8 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Khari BlasingameRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mecole HardmanWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cody ThompsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 15.6 | 16.0 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 10.8 | 11.8 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Trevon WescoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Myles GaskinRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Trenton IrwinWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 4.0 | 4.8 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.0 | 8.6 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Parker HesseTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.9 | 3.1 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Parris CampbellWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 7.1 | 8.6 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 17.2 | 12.6 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | James ProcheWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 11.1 | 9.8 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Marquez CallawayWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 18.5 | 27.6 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Donovan Peoples-JonesWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Quez WatkinsWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 10.9 | 5.7 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josiah DeguaraTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 17.4 | 24.4 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.6 | 5.0 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Lynn BowdenWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 13.7 | 21.4 | +7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 17.2 | 40.1 | +22.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 4.5 | 11.3 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 21.6 | 37.0 | +15.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ben MasonTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jermar JeffersonRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 3.3 | 0.9 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh PedersonTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brock WrightTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brandon SmithWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Feleipe FranksTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.9 | 6.4 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaelon DardenWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Luke FarrellTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse