Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W10 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 6.2 | 1.1 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 17.0 | 10.2 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 18.9 | 12.8 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 3.3 | 0.3 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.1 | -0.1 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 15.9 | 14.9 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.6 | 2.3 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.4 | 0.7 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 12.3 | 8.9 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 5.8 | 2.1 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | DeeJay DallasRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.6 | 0.2 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Trey SermonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 4.0 | 2.3 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 12.3 | 10.4 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 17.1 | 11.9 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 19.5 | 10.5 | −9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 17.4 | 13.7 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 5.7 | 5.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 9.3 | 5.3 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 3.0 | 0.7 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.3 | 1.7 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 3.6 | 2.1 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 18.1 | 11.5 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.4 | 0.3 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 5.1 | 3.3 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.4 | 0.9 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Trey SermonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 7.0 | 2.4 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 15.7 | 9.2 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 9.1 | 7.9 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 14.6 | 1.8 | −12.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 17.6 | 9.9 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 16.0 | 8.5 | −7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Sione VakiRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Audric EstiméRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.2 | 0.4 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 6.1 | 2.9 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.5 | 1.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 4.3 | 1.4 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 10.1 | 3.0 | −7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 14.3 | 4.0 | −10.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.9 | 4.2 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Andrew BeckRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 11.3 | 8.0 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Trey SermonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 12.0 | 5.9 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 7.5 | 0.4 | −7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 11.4 | 8.9 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 15.0 | 13.1 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 20.4 | 19.6 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.8 | 0.5 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 6.1 | 3.5 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 5.2 | 1.1 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 11.0 | 1.9 | −9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 2.7 | 1.7 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.6 | 1.1 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 7.7 | 1.7 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 18.6 | 7.4 | −11.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Miles SandersRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 6.8 | 2.3 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 11.9 | 10.5 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Zack MossRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 15.9 | 0.5 | −15.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 15.8 | 15.3 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 4.8 | 2.3 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 7.2 | 4.8 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.8 | 1.4 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 14.3 | 9.2 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.0 | 0.2 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.4 | -0.2 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 1.2 | 0.5 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 3.7 | 1.3 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 8.9 | 2.7 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 17.9 | 12.1 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 8.9 | 4.5 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Sione VakiRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.1 | 0.5 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 6.3 | 0.8 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 18.0 | 16.6 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 10.1 | 1.7 | −8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Samaje PerineRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 4.4 | 3.4 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 12.2 | 10.1 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 9.5 | 3.5 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 3.5 | 3.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.8 | 0.9 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 18.6 | 9.7 | −8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 16.0 | 12.0 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 13.8 | 9.6 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 15.1 | 8.8 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 17.4 | 13.8 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 3.2 | 1.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 5.6 | 1.2 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse