Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W15Austin TrammellWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tutu AtwellWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)4.51.9−2.6voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Avery WilliamsRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15James MitchellTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Brittain BrownRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.90.0−2.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tanner ConnerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Sincere McCormickRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tay MartinWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Zamir WhiteRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Erik EzukanmaWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Xavier SmithWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)4.10.0−4.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jason BrownleeWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Grant DuBoseWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Quentin JohnstonWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)7.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Kendre MillerRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)5.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)5.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Elijah CooksWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jordan MimsRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jalin HyattWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)3.40.0−3.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tyler ScottWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Chris CollierRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Malik NabersWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)12.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Luke McCaffreyWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Hayden RucciTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Treyton WelchTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Joshua CephusWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Blake WatsonRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Dallin HolkerTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Roman WilsonWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)3.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jordan WhittingtonWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)4.30.0−4.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Javon BakerWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tahj WashingtonWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ja'Lynn PolkWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Rome OdunzeWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)9.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Moliki MatavaoTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jahdae WalkerWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ja'Corey BrooksWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jacoby JonesWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Keleki LatuTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Carter RunyonTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Nate CarterRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Efton Chism IIIWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jalen RoyalsWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tory HortonWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)5.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ricky White IIIWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Tyrod TaylorQB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3)13.3-1.8−15.0voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Eric TomlinsonTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Tyreek HillWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)9.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Josh ReynoldsWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)6.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Gus EdwardsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Tyler ConklinTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Hayden HurstTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Travis HomerRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Daniel JonesQB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.3)17.00.8−16.2voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Darrynton EvansRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Joshua KelleyRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Tyler JohnsonWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Jaret PattersonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Brandon SmithWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Najee HarrisRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Trey LanceQB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.3)13.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Ko KieftTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Brittain BrownRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Tanner ConnerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Julius ChestnutRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Hassan HaskinsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Garrett WilsonWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)10.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Erik EzukanmaWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Dontayvion WicksWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)8.30.0−8.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Will MalloryTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Malik HeathWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Grant DuBoseWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Scott MatlockRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Tucker KraftTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)8.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Kendall MiltonRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Tanner McLachlanTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Hayden RucciTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Cam GrandyTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Tahj WashingtonWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Amar JohnsonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Kalel MullingsRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Tahj BrooksRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Arian SmithWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)1.60.0−1.6voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Tory HortonWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)4.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Ricky White IIIWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Matthew GoldenWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)6.50.0−6.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Andy DaltonQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.3)10.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Cordarrelle PattersonRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Nelson AgholorWR BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13MyCole PruittTE PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13C.J. UzomahTE PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Geoff SwaimTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Nick VannettTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Alex EricksonWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tyler HigbeeTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)7.1––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 5 of 14 · 1,335 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse