Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W10Irv SmithTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Stephen CarlsonTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Dawson KnoxTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)4.86.7+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Mitchell WilcoxTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Tyler MabryTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Harrison BryantTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)0.90.0−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Cole KmetTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)5.71.5−4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Josiah DeguaraTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Quintin MorrisTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W10John BatesTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)2.21.6−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Zach DavidsonTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Pat FreiermuthTE PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)6.36.3−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Greg DulcichTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)3.53.2−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Ko KieftTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Tanner ConnerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Tucker FiskTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.91.7+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Trey McBrideTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)15.127.7+12.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Isaiah LikelyTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)5.33.7−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Charlie KolarTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)2.33.3+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Daniel BellingerTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)3.21.8−1.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Cade OttonTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)8.717.2+8.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Travis VokolekTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Darnell WashingtonTE PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)4.42.5−1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Blake WhiteheartTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)0.80.0−0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Julian HillTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)3.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Dalton KincaidTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)9.65.7−3.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Brenton StrangeTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)6.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Elijah HigginsTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)2.63.9+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Payne DurhamTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Jack WestoverTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Cade StoverTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Brenden BatesTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Hayden RucciTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Colson YankoffTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)0.10.0−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Tip ReimanTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Devin CulpTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.70.0−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W10AJ BarnerTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)6.80.3−6.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Theo JohnsonTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)8.414.5+6.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Ben SinnottTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)0.67.4+6.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Nick KallerupTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Colston LovelandTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)7.09.5+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Oronde Gadsden IITE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)12.14.3−7.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Jackson HawesTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)2.99.6+6.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Thomas Fidone IITE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)8.78.4−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Elijah ArroyoTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)5.51.5−4.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Travis KelceTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)11.112.6+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Chris ManhertzTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W9Darren WallerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)6.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Eric TomlinsonTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Austin HooperTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)4.43.0−1.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Nick VannettTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)0.50.0−0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W9Hunter HenryTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)9.79.1−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Mo Alie-CoxTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.90.0−1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W9George KittleTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)9.46.9−2.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Pharaoh BrownTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Robert TonyanTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)0.10.0−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W9Will DisslyTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Tyler ConklinTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Ian ThomasTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)1.11.9+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Mark AndrewsTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)10.916.6+5.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Hayden HurstTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9T.J. HockensonTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)8.69.1+0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W9Joseph FortsonTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Mitchell WilcoxTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Josiah DeguaraTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W9Albert OkwuegbunamTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)5.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Charlie WoernerTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)1.00.0−1.0voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Noah GrayTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)3.80.0−3.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Zach DavidsonTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Feleipe FranksTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Luke FarrellTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)1.61.9+0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W9Kyle PittsTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)10.97.8−3.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Jake TongesTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)5.10.0−5.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Greg DulcichTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)0.69.9+9.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Teagan QuitorianoTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Andrew OgletreeTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)0.70.0−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W9John FitzPatrickTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)1.00.0−1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Nick MuseTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Tanner ConnerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)4.20.0−4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Peyton HendershotTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Tucker FiskTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)0.72.2+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Trey McBrideTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)16.116.5+0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W9Chig OkonkwoTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)7.23.0−4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Isaiah LikelyTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)4.79.0+4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Charlie KolarTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)1.910.3+8.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Daniel BellingerTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Thomas OdukoyaTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Will MalloryTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Travis VokolekTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Josh WhyleTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Brayden WillisTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Ben SimsTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9John ShenkerTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Tucker KraftTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)11.84.0−7.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Elijah HigginsTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)2.46.0+3.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Michael MayerTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)5.95.6−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W9Luke MusgraveTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)2.16.4+4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Jack WestoverTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest ·

NewerPage 6 of 9 · 856 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse