Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W13 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 17.8 | 29.4 | +11.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 20.6 | 13.2 | −7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Devaughn VeleWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 5.9 | 23.3 | +17.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Joshua CephusWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | 4.9 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 11.3 | 12.9 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Javon BakerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 12.3 | 4.1 | −8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Adonai MitchellWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 5.9 | 24.2 | +18.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 10.6 | 4.8 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 11.4 | 11.4 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Darius CooperWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | LaJohntay WesterWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kyle WilliamsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | 10.3 | +8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Pat BryantWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 5.1 | 7.2 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Efton Chism IIIWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Arian SmithWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Konata MumpfieldWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jalen RoyalsWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 17.0 | 23.2 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 16.6 | 4.0 | −12.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | 5.7 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tim PatrickWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Mack HollinsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 11.2 | 5.0 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Dante PettisWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 5.2 | 2.4 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 13.5 | 15.0 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 5.8 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 14.7 | 25.0 | +10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 12.9 | 13.7 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Dyami BrownWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 7.5 | 0.0 | −7.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 15.3 | 14.9 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 23.0 | 29.9 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Britain CoveyWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 6.3 | 0.0 | −6.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 19.6 | 16.0 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 14.7 | 0.0 | −14.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 12.5 | 3.6 | −8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Xavier GipsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 1.3 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 10.8 | 18.1 | +7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 10.5 | 3.5 | −7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 8.3 | 6.1 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ronnie BellWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Elijah CooksWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 9.5 | 3.0 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 20.4 | 16.7 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Devaughn VeleWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 4.4 | 6.7 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Joshua CephusWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jermaine JacksonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 6.3 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 3.8 | 4.7 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Javon BakerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Darius CooperWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | 2.7 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kyle WilliamsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | 2.8 | +0.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Dominic LovettWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Efton Chism IIIWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Konata MumpfieldWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | 4.5 | +3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Isaac TeSlaaWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Keenan AllenWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 13.1 | 9.3 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 16.9 | 19.5 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tyler LockettWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 5.7 | 6.3 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Chris MooreWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | 4.8 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Robbie ChosenWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 6.6 | 0.0 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Demarcus RobinsonWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 4.9 | 2.3 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kendrick BourneWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 8.4 | 0.0 | −8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Mack HollinsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 11.8 | 10.4 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | David MooreWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | River CracraftWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 13.2 | 9.9 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Russell GageWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Malik TurnerWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse