Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W11 | Trayveon WilliamsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 1.4 | 0.9 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | 0.6 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0) | 6.7 | 3.3 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 18.0 | 4.0 | −14.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jakob JohnsonRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 4.6 | 0.0 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.6) | 15.7 | 6.8 | −8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 12.5 | 9.4 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 14.2 | 9.0 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 18.9 | 3.3 | −15.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 9.3 | 5.1 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.3) | 8.0 | 3.8 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Elijah MitchellRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 15.9 | 8.2 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | John BatesTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Luke FarrellTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 22.3 | 6.0 | −16.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 10.7 | 3.4 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 12.3 | 8.2 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Brian RobinsonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 4.4 | 2.4 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 8.3 | 4.8 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Owen WrightRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 11.1 | 0.0 | −11.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 6.9 | 5.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 9.2 | 6.1 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | 0.8 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 6.5 | 4.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Mitchell TinsleyWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 6.9 | 0.2 | −6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Michael MayerTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 6.1 | 4.3 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | 0.9 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kendall MiltonRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 0.2 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 10.7 | 3.2 | −7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected −0.3) | 15.3 | 12.6 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.6) | 22.3 | 15.4 | −6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 8.0 | 7.2 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tahj WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 15.3 | 4.3 | −11.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ricky PearsallWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 10.6 | 1.0 | −9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 5.7 | 2.8 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kyle WilliamsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jaylin LaneWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 6.1 | 2.3 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 11.8 | 6.1 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | 0.0 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tahj BrooksRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | 0.5 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jimmy Horn Jr.WR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 9.6 | 4.3 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Efton Chism IIIWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 5.6 | 0.0 | −5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 9.7 | 6.1 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Trevor EtienneRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | 0.2 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dillon GabrielQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 9.8 | 2.9 | −6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tre HarrisWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 3.5 | 2.2 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Isaiah BondWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | 0.8 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Aaron RodgersQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.6) | 14.6 | 6.4 | −8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Geno SmithQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 11.7 | 4.4 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0) | 4.4 | 0.0 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0) | 10.2 | 1.9 | −8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 3.9 | 3.1 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 7.4 | 1.4 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Christian KirkWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 6.6 | 1.3 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 6.8 | 6.2 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 21.0 | 16.6 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.6) | 22.3 | 19.3 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6) | 17.7 | 4.9 | −12.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | 0.6 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | 0.1 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 12.0 | 6.5 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 14.1 | 3.3 | −10.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Daniel JonesQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 18.8 | 15.5 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 4.4 | 1.7 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected −0.8) | 13.7 | 10.8 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Harrison BryantTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 14.6 | 3.9 | −10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 5.7 | 1.5 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 20.6 | 14.7 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected −0.3) | 17.7 | 12.0 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Quintin MorrisTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | John BatesTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 2.2 | 1.6 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Simi FehokoWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 17.8 | 16.9 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 7.0 | 0.4 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 21.2 | 16.8 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 13.8 | 9.8 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse