Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W17 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 10.7 | 19.0 | +8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 6.2 | 8.1 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 7.8 | 2.0 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ronnie BellWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 2.1 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 5.2 | 4.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | 5.4 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 5.5 | 3.4 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Mitchell TinsleyWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Shedrick JacksonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 4.0 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 7.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyler ScottWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dylan DrummondWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 6.3 | 4.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 11.2 | 12.5 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 7.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 10.3 | 5.4 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.1) | 8.2 | 1.1 | −7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 10.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Michael MayerTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 4.3 | 17.9 | +13.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 29.5 | 15.7 | −13.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 12.8 | 8.9 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 9.2 | 26.2 | +17.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | George HolaniRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 4.4 | 0.0 | −4.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 14.0 | 6.7 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tanner McLachlanTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jawhar JordanRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 8.5 | 3.6 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Devaughn VeleWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 2.9 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Treyton WelchTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | British BrooksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jacob KibodiRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Colson YankoffTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected −0.3) | 19.0 | 19.5 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 0.2 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 4.1 | 0.0 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Terrell JenningsRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 8.6 | 13.3 | +4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Rasheen AliRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | 2.8 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.3) | 4.1 | 3.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jermaine BurtonWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jared WileyTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 21.3 | 32.4 | +11.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Javon BakerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 12.4 | 5.7 | −6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | 2.6 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 5.8 | 1.5 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tahj WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 11.5 | 7.9 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | 5.9 | +4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 10.5 | 4.1 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.3) | 18.0 | 23.0 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Nick KallerupTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jacardia WrightRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | 9.5 | +7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 10.4 | 21.4 | +11.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kyle WilliamsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | 5.0 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tai FeltonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dylan SampsonRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | 5.7 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jaylin LaneWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jordan JamesRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Mitchell EvansTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 2.5 | 1.6 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kalel MullingsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.4 | −0.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Thomas Fidone IITE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Quinn EwersQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.3) | 11.0 | 15.8 | +4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 9.3 | 7.7 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 8.9 | 22.5 | +13.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Moliki MatavaoTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 0.3 | 3.0 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jahdae WalkerWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | 5.0 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Theo Wease Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 4.2 | 13.3 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ja'Corey BrooksWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jacoby JonesWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Coleman OwenWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Keleki LatuTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse