Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W5Reggie GilliamRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)0.70.0−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Jonathan TaylorRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)23.231.6+8.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)4.13.6−0.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Adam PrenticeRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)0.80.8+0.0pushBacktest ·
2025 W5Rhamondre StevensonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)10.814.7+4.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Javonte WilliamsRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)19.026.9+7.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Tyler BadieRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)3.12.6−0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W5Isiah PachecoRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)10.48.6−1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W5James CookRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)19.34.9−14.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Rachaad WhiteRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)16.023.1+7.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Dameon PierceRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)3.22.1−1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Ronnie RiversRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)6.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Kyren WilliamsRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)18.831.1+12.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Deuce VaughnRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Hunter LuepkeRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.32.0+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Jaleel McLaughlinRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)4.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Sean TuckerRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)4.52.9−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Carson SteeleRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Blake WatsonRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5British BrooksRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)0.91.5+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Cody SchraderRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Blake CorumRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)4.81.3−3.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Terrell JenningsRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Ray DavisRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)3.80.1−3.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Brashard SmithRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)3.16.6+3.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W5DJ GiddensRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)2.82.2−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Ulysses Bentley IVRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Woody MarksRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)6.92.4−4.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W5RJ HarveyRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)7.86.0−1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W5TreVeyon HendersonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)7.24.7−2.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Kareem HuntRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)7.65.7−1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Jeff WilsonRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Alec IngoldRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)3.00.0−3.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W4JaMycal HastyRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)4.78.7+4.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Rhamondre StevensonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)12.45.1−7.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Travis EtienneRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)14.919.5+4.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Isiah PachecoRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)9.912.8+2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Rachaad WhiteRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)7.88.6+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Sean TuckerRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4De'Von AchaneRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)19.817.1−2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Carson SteeleRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Bucky IrvingRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)15.925.5+9.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Keilan RobinsonRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Terrell JenningsRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Jaylen WrightRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Brashard SmithRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)1.86.6+4.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Ollie Gordon IIRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)3.91.0−2.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W4LeQuint Allen Jr.RB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)3.41.7−1.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Bhayshul TutenRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)4.43.2−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W4TreVeyon HendersonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)7.612.6+5.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Avery WilliamsRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Tyler AllgeierRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)7.81.4−6.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Bijan RobinsonRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)21.616.1−5.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Jase McClellanRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 9 of 9 · 857 calls

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse