Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W5Ko KieftTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)0.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)0.51.3+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Stone SmarttTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Tucker FiskTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0)1.20.0−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Jeremy RuckertTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)2.46.8+4.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Isaiah LikelyTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)4.12.2−1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Jake FergusonTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)12.023.9+11.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Charlie KolarTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)1.32.0+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Cade OttonTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)6.312.1+5.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Will MalloryTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)1.40.0−1.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Zack KuntzTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Luke SchoonmakerTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)2.61.3−1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Princeton FantTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Nate AdkinsTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)2.00.0−2.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Dalton KincaidTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)8.216.8+8.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Payne DurhamTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)1.40.0−1.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Jack WestoverTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.10.0−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W5Cade StoverTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Brenden BatesTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)0.34.3+4.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Brevyn Spann-FordTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)1.00.0−1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Devin CulpTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)2.00.0−2.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Tyler WarrenTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)13.414.4+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Oronde Gadsden IITE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0)6.12.4−3.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Jackson HawesTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)1.90.0−1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Mason TaylorTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)8.517.7+9.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Darren WallerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)7.017.7+10.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Austin HooperTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)5.23.4−1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Hunter HenryTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)11.111.9+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Mitchell WilcoxTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Charlie WoernerTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Feleipe FranksTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W4Kyle PittsTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0)7.818.0+10.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Greg DulcichTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Teagan QuitorianoTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W4Ko KieftTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)0.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Tanner ConnerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)3.00.0−3.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Chig OkonkwoTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)7.01.4−5.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Cade OttonTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)7.33.9−3.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Thomas OdukoyaTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Julian HillTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)1.62.9+1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Payne DurhamTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)1.80.0−1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Jack WestoverTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)0.10.0−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W4Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4David Martin-RobinsonTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Devin CulpTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Gunnar HelmTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)3.12.2−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Foster MoreauTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Juwan JohnsonTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)9.211.1+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Charlie WoernerTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)1.10.5−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Jack StollTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)0.310.1+9.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Feleipe FranksTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Kyle PittsTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)8.17.9−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W3Teagan QuitorianoTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W3Dallin HolkerTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Moliki MatavaoTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)0.1––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 9 of 9 · 856 calls

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse