Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W13 | Cole FotheringhamTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.5 | 8.5 | +6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | John Metchie IIIWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 3.6 | 3.6 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 10.1 | 9.6 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Will MalloryTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.7 | 1.7 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Evan HullRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 7.4 | 13.9 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | John ShenkerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 10.5 | 3.3 | −7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 3.1 | 1.5 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 16.7 | 14.4 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Anthony RichardsonQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 17.7 | 21.2 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chris CollierRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 12.1 | 30.2 | +18.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 2.5 | 1.4 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | British BrooksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 7.5 | 0.0 | −7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brandin CooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Chris MooreWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 5.2 | 0.6 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 12.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 3.1 | 1.7 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 13.2 | 19.9 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 17.1 | 9.9 | −7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Cooper RushQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 11.2 | 18.0 | +6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Trent SherfieldWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Michael GallupWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 15.2 | 21.1 | +5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 17.2 | 10.3 | −6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 8.9 | 18.4 | +9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Myles GaskinRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 4.8 | 1.5 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | N'Keal HarryTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Andre BaccelliaWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Trishton JacksonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 10.3 | 10.8 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 16.6 | 4.7 | −11.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 16.8 | 16.8 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 5.3 | 3.5 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | DeeJay DallasRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Rondale MooreWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 4.9 | 7.5 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Keaontay IngramRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 7.2 | 10.2 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 12.9 | 25.3 | +12.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 4.3 | 7.8 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Lucky JacksonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 4.0 | 14.5 | +10.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 9.2 | 7.4 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 3.3 | 5.1 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 4.1 | 1.4 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 1.7 | 2.0 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 9.4 | 30.2 | +20.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 2.9 | 1.5 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 4.0 | 1.8 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 2.6 | 4.4 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 11.6 | 7.7 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 4.0 | 1.8 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Joe FlaccoQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 11.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 14.7 | 27.8 | +13.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brandon BoldenRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 14.2 | 4.9 | −9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Keith SmithRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Damiere ByrdWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 4.1 | 10.7 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 7.5 | 3.9 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 2.9 | 3.7 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 2.8 | 2.3 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 14.1 | 5.3 | −8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Isaiah McKenzieWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 12.4 | 28.6 | +16.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.2 | 1.5 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 8.3 | 10.6 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse